ClutchPoints will not be affiliated with, endorsed by, or in any way connected to any sportsbook. Gambling will not be offered on this website in any form.
As two veterans seeking to slot themselves into the UFC light heavyweight title picture, Nikita Krylov (30-9) and Dominick Reyes (14-4) meet on the important card of UFC 314. It’s time to proceed our UFC 314 odds series with a Nikita Krylov-Dominick Reyes prediction and pick.
Krylov, 33, has not fought since March 2024 but enters the matchup on a three-fight win streak, the second-longest of his UFC profession. The 39-fight veteran is coming off a first-round triangle choke of Ryan Spann, his first submission win in 4 years.
Reyes, 35, is 4 months faraway from a second-round TKO of Anthony Smith, a win that capped off a 2-0 12 months for him in 2024. With back-to-back knockout wins, Reyes is back heading in the right direction within the division after seemingly being left for dead following a four-fight losing streak that spanned over three years.
Listed below are the UFC 314 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 314 Odds: Nikita Krylov-Dominick Reyes Odds
Nikita Krylov: -175
Dominick Reyes: +145
Over 1.5 rounds: -145
Under 1.5 rounds: +114
*Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why Nikita Krylov Will Win
Nearly all of the UFC fan base desires to consider that Reyes is “back.” Consecutive knockout victories fed that narrative, but wins over Dustin Jacoby and a retiring Anthony Smith are removed from encouraging. Krylov will not be the exciting knockout artist that Reyes is but is just a beacon of consistency within the division’s top 10. Unlike Jacoby or Smith, a win over Krylov would solidify the notion that Reyes continues to be a top-10-level fighter.
Although he has 12 knockout wins to his name, Krylov is probably the most grappling-heavy fighters within the division. A pure striker, Reyes has never been submitted but has yet to be truly tested in that area. Reyes has only faced one grappling-based fighter in his UFC profession, Chris Weidman, who moved up from middleweight to take the fight. Eleven years into his skilled MMA profession, Reyes continues to be only a Brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt, in line with his profile on UFC.com.
Related NewsArticle continues below
Even without the specter of a takedown, Krylov can hurt Reyes on the feet, which is where he has been more vulnerable recently. 4 of Reyes’ last five opponents have hurt him, including three brutal knockout losses. Of Krylov’s seven UFC losses, six have been against superior grapplers. Reyes simply doesn’t have that to his game.
Why Dominick Reyes Will Win
It is tough to inform if Reyes is fully back to the perfect version of himself with the character of his recent wins. Nonetheless, before his infamous four-fight losing streak, Reyes was a uniquely powerful and athletic striker, unlike any the UFC light heavyweight division had seen up to now several years. Of his eight UFC wins, Reyes has five knockdowns and five KO/TKO victories.
Though Krylov is thought for his durable chin, he doesn’t have the perfect defensive technique. In his lengthy UFC profession, Krylov has only a 44 percent striking defense, rating near the underside of the division. He absorbs just 2.47 significant strikes per minute but is vulnerable to getting touched up from a distance when he will not be securing takedowns.
For many of his profession, Krylov has managed to evade nearly all of the toughest hitters in the sunshine heavyweight division. Reyes doesn’t have the heaviest hands within the division but is probably the most athletic and explosive strikers the burden class has to supply. Defending 82 percent of takedowns in his UFC profession, no fighter has held him down for longer than 1:41. Krylov would likely need to keep him down for over seven minutes to win this fight across three rounds.
Final Nikita Krylov-Dominick Reyes Prediction & Pick
Each Krylov and Reyes are proven finishers, but neither has a method that may truly exploit the weaknesses of the opposite. Though not a real “striker vs. grappler” matchup, Krylov does his best work on the bottom while Reyes earns his paychecks along with his striking. Nonetheless, Krylov has only been knocked out once, while Reyes has never been submitted.
Though Krylov likes to strike in moments, he’s a grappler at heart and is aware that his best path to victory on this fight is along with his wrestling. Reyes’ takedown defense has been stellar up to now, but he has yet to face a grappler nearly as good as Krylov. While a lot of the Ukrainian’s losses have come by submission, they have an inclination to be against opponents who’re simply higher grapplers than he’s, which Reyes will not be.
With only a Brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt, Reyes is a reliable wrestler but an insufficient grappler if Krylov can place him on his back. Still, despite most of Krylov’s victories coming in round one, Reyes’ durability issues are along with his chin and never his grappling defense. Reyes’ takedown defense is at its best within the opening frame, where he should give you the chance to make use of his superior athleticism to maintain his distance. With each fighters neutralizing one another’s strengths, expect an extended bout than each men are typically used to.
Final Nikita Krylov-Dominick Reyes Prediction & Pick: Over 1.5 rounds (-145)
The content of this text is for entertainment and academic purposes only, and ClutchPoints makes no warranty to the accuracy of the data given or final result of any sporting event. Gambling will not be offered on this website, and all betting content is meant for audiences ages 21+. All picks and predictions are based on each individual author’s opinion, and do not express that of ClutchPoints. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
