The stakes are high for Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin because it’s been confirmed the pair will meet in Alaska next week to debate ending the war in Ukraine.
The US President and Russian President will sit down within the US’ most northern state – which has been chosen resulting from its close proximity to Russia – on August 15.
Addressing reporters on the White House yesterday, Trump suggested an agreement would involve some exchange of land between Ukraine and Russia.
‘There’ll be some swapping of territories to the betterment of each,’ the Republican president said. A spokesperson for the Kremlin has confirmed the summit.
But Volodymyr Zelensky said this morning that Ukraine couldn’t violate its structure on the territorial issues, adding that ‘Ukrainians is not going to gift their land to the occupiers.’
In a video address to the nation posted on his Telegram channel on Saturday, Zelensky said that any decisions without Ukraine can be decisions against peace.
‘They’ll not achieve anything. These are stillborn decisions. They’re unworkable decisions. And all of us need real and real peace,’ Zelensky said.
Rumours swirled earlier this week that Zelensky could join the summit, and one senior White House official briefed reporters last night that he could still be involved within the discussions ultimately.
If that long-awaited moment does arrive, certainly one of the leaders will come to the table at a big drawback, based on British Foreign Policy Group think tank director Evie Aspinall.
Aspinall said Trump is ‘feeling relatively confident in regards to the situation’ after weeks of trumpeting his role in stopping conflicts between Israel and Iran, India and Pakistan, and several other other regions all over the world.
She told Metro: ‘I feel in his mind, he’s managed to bring Putin to the table, and he’s going to make use of it as a possibility to actually cement himself as this deal maker and as someone that’s in a position to secure peace on the planet.
‘And so what he wants, really, is a ceasefire. He wants an end to the war in Ukraine. His intent is fairly straightforward. He desires to see the war end, and he desires to be seen as the person that makes that possible.’
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Ultimately, the summit is ‘as much as anything, a picture thing’ for Trump, she argued, as it could also mean disentangling the US from a worldwide conflict.
Putin, meanwhile, is ‘making huge progress militarily’ in Ukraine and is in a position to use the meeting to secure two big objectives – demonstrating to Trump he’s ‘reasonable’ enough to barter, and buying time on the battlefield.
Aspinall said: ‘Putin can be build up his resources in order that he’s in the perfect position possible for when a ceasefire or full negotiation then happens.
‘He wants to make use of this as a possibility to indicate that he’s on Trump’s side.’
The US President could have appeared to sharpen his stance against his Russian counterpart in recent weeks, notably hitting India with punitive tariffs for getting Russia’s oil.
But Aspinall explained it’s likely a shrewd move from Putin to sit down down for talks at this time limit.
She said: ‘I feel Putin is playing quite well for the Russians. By coming to negotiating table, he’s managed to get Trump to attend, step back from the threats of sanctions for now.
‘What he’ll be hoping is that he presents himself as reasonable in these meetings, after which Trump doesn’t go on with the sanctions which are purported to hit imminently.’
For Zelensky, the summit can be way more of a high-wire act with way more dangerous results.
Aspinall said: ‘I feel there may be possible progress. The issue with the progress is it’s going to be on Putin’s terms, reasonably than Zelensky’s terms.
‘I feel there may be a world wherein you see Trump and Putin come out saying, “This can be a deal that will work,” after which you’ve got Europe and Ukraine pushing back very heavily on that, and a negotiation over that deal.’
The Ukrainian President’s best bet is likely to be to challenge Putin’s position because the ‘reasonable actor’ within the negotiations by pressing hard on the Russian leader’s red lines – equivalent to agreeing to Ukraine joining Nato.
This might ‘push Putin right into a corner’, suggested Aspinall, which is likely to be Zelensky’s best likelihood at leverage.
But she was clear Ukraine has more to lose in a probable deal.
Russia could possibly be flexible on territory swaps, and offer them in exchange for Putin’s greater prizes: blocking Ukrainian Nato membership, shrinking the dimensions of its military, and forcing elections that will ‘inevitably be biased by Russian disinformation’.
Aspinall said: ‘the Territory part is the part that they may probably be softer on, as a way for Trump to come back out and say, we’re not giving Putin all the things. We’ve got the territory back, for instance.
‘But Putin can sell it as you recognize, we now not have an aggressor on our doorstep. Now we have a supporter and ally of Russia on our doorstep.’
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