Roman Dolidze vs. Anthony Hernandez prediction, odds, pick for UFC Vegas 109

UFC Vegas 109: Roman Dolidze versus Anthony Hernandez continues with the predominant event fight between Roman Dolidze and Anthony Hernandez within the middleweight division on Saturday. Take a look at our UFC odds series for our Dolidze-Hernandez prediction and pick.

Roman Dolidze (5-3) enters this weekend’s matchup against Anthony Hernandez riding a three-fight winning streak, including a TKO over Kevin Holland and a recent decision win against former title challenger Marvin Vettori. Dolidze has combined precise striking with tough grappling to construct momentum heading into UFC Vegas 109.

Anthony Hernandez (14-2) enters this weekend’s UFC Vegas 109 matchup against Roman Dolidze off strong recent performances.

He secured a unanimous-decision win over Brendan Allen back in February and displayed ending power with a fifth-round KO of Michel Pereira in October 2024. Hernandez goals to increase his winning streak and move closer to title contention with a victory this weekend.

Listed below are the UFC Vegas 109 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings. 

UFC Vegas 109 odds: Roman Dolidze-Anthony Hernandez odds

Roman Dolidze: +250

Anthony Hernandez: -310

Over 3.5 Rounds: -130

Under 3.5 Rounds: +100

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Why Roman Dolidze will win

• Last Fight: (W) Marvin Vettori – DEC
• Last 5: 3-2
• Finishes: 11 (8 KO/TKO/3 SUB)

Roman Dolidze holds significant benefits over Anthony Hernandez heading into UFC Vegas 109 that may lead to his victory. Dolidze’s combination of elite grappling and knockout power makes him a formidable threat. Though Hernandez favors submissions, Dolidze’s grappling defense and talent to land heavy strikes give him the sting in each domains.

At 37 years old, Dolidze is in peak physical condition and boasts quickness on his feet, aided by a lean frame despite his 6’3” height. His recent performances, including a TKO win over Kevin Holland and outstriking Marvin Vettori with a striking volume nearly double Vettori’s, highlight his durability and precision.

While Dolidze’s takedown defense is just not the strongest (around 33%), he has shown the power to flee submissions and maintain control, stopping Hernandez from capitalizing on his submission skills.

Hernandez is the betting favorite with a record of 14-2-1, known for his striking volume and submission threats. Nevertheless, his striking power will not be enough to complete Dolidze, who has never been knocked out and endures lengthy, high-pressure fights.

Dolidze’s balance of grappling and striking, combined along with his stamina through five-round fights, suggests he can maintain pressure, capitalize on openings, and frustrate Hernandez. This tactical mix positions Roman Dolidze well to upset the chances and secure a call or possibly a late finish at UFC Vegas 109.

Why Anthony Hernandez will win

• Last Fight: (W) Brendan Allen – DEC
• Last 5: 5-0
• Finishes: 11 (3 KO/TKO/8 SUB)

Anthony Hernandez holds key benefits over Roman Dolidze heading into UFC Vegas 109 that make him a powerful contender for victory.

Hernandez’s youth and physical prime at 31 years old contrast with Dolidze’s 37 years, giving Hernandez potential benefits in speed, stamina, and recovery through the fight. His height of 6’0″ and reach of 75 inches allow him to regulate distance and impose his striking effectively.

Hernandez’s striking is precise and high volume, averaging about 4.8 significant strikes per minute, which might maintain pressure and rating consistently throughout the rounds.

He is understood for his ending ability, evidenced by a fifth-round KO of Michel Pereira and a unanimous-decision win over Brendan Allen in early 2025. His improved fight IQ and tactical growth help him capitalize on opponent mistakes, integrating well-rounded grappling with striking.

Dolidze’s strengths lie in power and grappling, but Hernandez’s solid takedown defense and talent to avoid being controlled on the bottom reduce Dolidze’s impact in that area. Hernandez’s experience with high-pressure fights and talent to sustain pace against tough opponents suggest he’ll outwork Dolidze in exchanges and manage the fight’s tempo.

If Hernandez can maintain range, avoid Dolidze’s power shots, and blend striking with takedown threats, he’s poised to secure a call or late-finish win at UFC Vegas 109. His momentum and skill evolution position him to beat Dolidze’s pressure style in a compelling middleweight clash.

Final Roman Dolidze-Anthony Hernandez prediction & pick

Anthony Hernandez enters UFC Vegas 109 as the favourite against Roman Dolidze, riding a formidable seven-fight winning streak that features a fifth-round KO of Michel Pereira and a unanimous decision over Brendan Allen. Hernandez’s well-rounded skill set, combining precise striking with solid grappling, makes him a formidable opponent within the middleweight division.

Hernandez’s high striking volume and efficiency,  averaging 4.5 significant strikes per minute while absorbing fewer than 3 per minute — enable him to keep up pressure and control the pace. His reach advantage and talent to combine striking with takedown threats allow him to maintain opponents off balance.

The fight may hinge on Hernandez’s ability to avoid Dolidze’s power shots and impose his volume striking and grappling. Ultimately, Hernandez’s youth, striking volume, and tactical maturity position him to outpoint Dolidze over five rounds, securing a call win at UFC Vegas 109.

Final Roman Dolidze-Anthony Hernandez Prediction & Pick: Anthony Hernandez (-310), Over 3.5 Rounds (-130)