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Two bantamweight veterans collide at UFC Vancouver on Saturday when Cody Gibson (21-11) takes on Aoriqileng (25-12, one no-contest). It’s time to proceed our UFC Vancouver odds series with a Gibson-Aoriqileng prediction and pick.
Gibson, 38, will make his sixth consecutive walk to the octagon and tenth UFC appearance overall. “The Renegade” is seeking to rebound after having his two-fight win streak snapped by Da’Mon Blackshear at UFC Vegas 104.
Aoriqileng, 32, can be fighting for the primary time in 2025, ending a 13-month layoff. “The Mongolian Murderer” last competed at Noche UFC when he lost a unanimous decision to Raul Rosas Jr. at The Sphere. Aoriqileng has not gotten his hand raised within the octagon since October 2023 when he beat Johnny Muñoz Jr. by decision at UFC Vegas 80.
Listed below are the UFC Vancouver Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Vancouver odds: Cody Gibson-Aoriqileng odds
Cody Gibson: -166
Aoriqileng: +140
Over 2.5 rounds: -188
Under 2.5 rounds: +145
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Why Cody Gibson will win
Gibson is the definition of a pressure fighter. He almost all the time has a height and reach advantage over his opponents but never seems to care and all the time looks to push the pace. Gibson may not be essentially the most technically proficient fighter, but he never stops moving forward and tests his opponent’s will greater than anything.
If the fight stays standing, Aoriqileng can hurt Gibson. However the Mongolian is almost the other of Gibson and prefers to choose his shots from the surface. He doesn’t are likely to fare well against pressure and particularly struggles against fighters who throw caution to the wind like Gibson does.
Aoriqileng is 2-2 within the UFC when he cedes a takedown, but that number ought to be worse. Not one of the fighters he has beaten are still with the UFC, and he would have lost to Johnny Muñoz Jr. had the latter landed greater than seven significant strikes in a 15-minute bout. Gibson has a way more aggressive and well-rounded style that ought to exploit his grappling advantage.
Why Aoriqileng will win
When he’s at his best, Gibson is a freight train who brings the identical style against every opponent he faces. The most important concern for his profession at this point is age because the Californian recently celebrated his thirty eighth birthday. Gibson has yet to point out signs of slowing down, but his all-action fight style doesn’t typically age well.
Besides his age, Gibson also has several defensive concerns. He tends to overwhelm his opponents in the primary round, but his losses come against those that can survive that initial onslaught and quickly turn the tables on him. Aoriqileng has only one knockout within the UFC, but he has the ability to harm Gibson, whose reckless approach causes him to soak up nearly as many strikes as he lands.
Aoriqileng has struggled against grapplers, but his recent shortcomings have been against technical strikers. Even in his loss to Rosas, he was in a position to neutralize the Mexican’s grappling but struggled with distance on the feet. Before the Rosas fight, he had not lost to a grappler since his second UFC fight against Cody Durden in 2021.
Final Cody Gibson-Aoriqileng prediction & pick
This fight could easily be a pink-slip bout as neither has had much recent success within the UFC. They’re a combined 3-5-1 within the last two years, and fighters in similar positions are likely to receive the axe in the autumn when the corporate brings in a brand new crop of talent on Dana White’s Contender Series.
The high stakes favor Gibson on paper because the naturally more aggressive fighter. He wants this fight on the bottom, and Aoriqileng has historically given up takedowns in matchups against grapplers.
“The Mongolian Murderer” has ceded 3.75 takedowns in his 4 fights against opponents who average greater than 2.0 takedowns per quarter-hour within the UFC. Gibson averages 2.13 takedowns per quarter-hour.
A striking battle favors Aoriqileng, but Gibson only has one speed. Although he’s just 3-6 within the UFC, all of Gibson’s losses have been against technical grapplers who were in a position to neutralize his approach with superior technical skills and physicality.
That is just not Aoriqileng, who has faded late in fights on multiple occasions. Aoriqileng has been to the scorecards five times within the UFC and lost the deciding third round in 4 of them.
Final Cody Gibson-Aoriqileng Prediction & Pick: Cody Gibson (-166), Over 2.5 (-188)
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