Leon Edwards vs. Carlos Prates prediction, odds, pick for UFC 322

UFC 322: Jack Della Maddalena vs. Islam Makhachev continues on the most important card with a fight between Leon Edwards and Carlos Prates within the welterweight division on Saturday. Check out our UFC odds series for our Edwards-Prates prediction and pick.

Leon Edwards (22-5) enters UFC 322 on a two-fight skid, coming off losses to Belal Muhammad by decision and Sean Brady by guillotine choke. Despite his prior title run, Edwards is aiming to recapture momentum as he comes into his fight this weekend against Carlos Prates.

Carlos Prates (22-7) enters UFC 322 with five UFC knockouts, including a recent second-round KO of Geoff Neal in his UFC profession. Before that, Prates fell by decision to Ian Machado Garry, snapping a powerful streak. The Brazilian finisher looks to make one other statement as he comes into his fight this weekend against Leon Edwards.

Listed here are the UFC 322 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings. 

UFC 322 odds: Leon Edwards-Carlos Prates odds

Leon Edwards: +150

Carlos Prates: -180

Over 2.5 rounds: -145

Under 2.5 rounds: +114

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Why Leon Edwards will win

• Last Fight: (L) Sean Brady – SUB R4
• Last 5: 3-2
• Finishes: 10 (7 KO/TKO/3 SUB)

Leon Edwards enters UFC 322 hungry to reclaim his elite status, armed with championship experience and a well-rounded toolkit. His signature ability to regulate range with slick footwork and varied striking enables him to frustrate power punchers like Prates, who thrive on unpredictable exchanges.​

Edwards’ durability and defensive savvy have been tested against the easiest within the division, and his clinch work adds one other layer to his approach. If Prates pushes the pace, Edwards can neutralize it with precise counters and dirty boxing, sapping the Brazilian’s explosiveness through technical mastery.​

On the bottom, Edwards’ grappling and submission defense ensure he isn’t easily overwhelmed if the fight hits the mat. Having weathered adversity in previous five-round wars, his composure and experience under pressure will help him capitalize on Prates’ defensive lapses because the rounds wear on.​

Search for Edwards to administer distance, pick apart Prates with combos and body kicks, and lean on his veteran IQ to avoid knockout danger. Over five rounds, Edwards’ championship mettle and well-honed tactics should shine through, helping him rating a critical win this Saturday at UFC 322.​

Why Carlos Prates will win

• Last Fight: (W) Geoff Neal – KO/TKO R1
• Last 5: 4-1
• Finishes: 20 (17 KO/TKO/3 SUB)

Carlos Prates brings a fearsome ending instinct and a dynamic striking arsenal to UFC 322, making him a dangerous matchup for Leon Edwards. With five UFC knockouts and a recent stoppage of Geoff Neal, Prates excels at capitalizing on even the slightest defensive lapses from his opponents.​

Edwards has looked vulnerable in his last two outings, and Prates has the aggression to take advantage of any hesitation or lapses in focus. If he’s in a position to pressure early and force Edwards into uncomfortable exchanges, Prates can chip away with devastating body kicks and relentless combos.​

Prates’ confidence entering this fight is backed by ending power in either hand, giving him a path to victory at any moment within the bout. If he can stuff Edwards’ clinch attempts and keep the fight in open space, Prates’ range striking and willingness to trade could tilt the momentum in his favor.​

Because the fight unfolds, Prates will look to overwhelm Edwards with volume and force defensive mistakes. Should Edwards get drawn right into a firefight, Prates’ explosiveness might be the x-factor, helping the Brazilian secure a show-stealing win this Saturday at UFC 322.​

Final Leon Edwards-Carlos Prates prediction & pick

Prates is the betting favorite for good reason, boasting 17 KOs in 22 wins, including a surprising elbow finish of Geoff Neal and a habit of handing out first profession knockouts to tough veterans.​

Edwards, though, is a former champion who’s never been knocked out—his striking defense, footwork, and championship-level tactics provide a transparent path to victory if he can avoid the early danger. Most analysts agree that if Edwards makes this a methodical, multi-round fight, his skills and composure skew the lead to his favor.​

Prates’ game plan will likely be high-pressure exchanges, aiming to tug Edwards into the form of firefight where he excels. Should he land clean early, Edwards could fall victim to his first KO loss; nonetheless, if “Rocky” finds his rhythm and controls the pace, he’s still able to pulling off a savvy upset.​

Ultimately, the fight is razor-close: Prates by KO is the smart play for fireworks, but Edwards’ resilience could steal a grinding decision. Expect drama, with Prates getting the emphatic KO victory over the previous champ this Saturday at UFC 322.​

Final Leon Edwards-Carlos Prates Prediction & Pick: Carlos Prates (-180), Under 2.5 Rounds (+114)