Alex Perez vs. Asu Almabayev prediction, odds, pick for UFC Qatar

UFC Qatar: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker is heating up as we bring you one other betting prediction and pick for this next bout within the Flyweight (125) Division. No. 7 Alex Perez of California will tackle Kazakhstan’s No. 8 Asu Almabayev in a competitive matchup within the top-10 rankings. Check our UFC odds series for the Perez-Almabayev prediction and pick.

Alex Perez (25-9) has gone 7-5 contained in the UFC since 2017. He’s 1-4 in his last five fights against current and former champions, but he’s only made that many appearances since 2020. After quite a few fight cancellations, he’ll be looking to seek out his rhythm once more with a win here. Perez stands 5-foot-6 with a 65.5-inch reach.

Asu Almabayev (22-3) has gone 5-1 within the UFC since 2023. After suffering his first promotional loss to Manel Kape, he bounced back with a robust unanimous decision win over Jose Ochoa his last day out. He’ll look to stay confident and jump the rankings because the betting favorite here. Almabayev stands 5-foot-4 with a 65-inch reach.

Listed below are the UFC Qatar Odds, courtesy of DraftKings. 

UFC Qatar Odds: Alex Perez-Asu Almabayev Odds

Alex Perez: +160

Asu Almabayev: -192

Over 2.5 rounds: -200

Under 2.5 rounds: +154

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Why Alex Perez Will Win

• Last Fight: (L) Tatsuro Taira – TKO (knee injury, R2)
• Last 5: 1-4
• Finishes: 6 KO/TKO, 7 SUB

Alex Perez has been tasked with facing top-5 level competition ever since his title challenge against Deiveson Figueiredo back in 2020. Since then, Perez has needed to withdraw from quite a few fights on account of medical issues. Things got worse in his last fight against Tatsuro Taira when he sustained a major knee injury, sidelining him for over a yr. He’ll make his return on this fight barring any setbacks trying to finally get back on that winning streak he’s been trying to find.

Perez is well-rounded in all areas of the fight and stays consistent through all three rounds. He’s rather more energetic together with his significant strikes per minute (4.19) opposite of Almbayev (2.16) and his striking defense is more sound at 58% to Almabayev’s 52%. His takedown defense can also be a really impressive 77% and will definitely given Almabayev a troublesome time in bringing him down.

Alex Perez must have an important likelihood because the underdog on this fight if he’s capable of feel confident planting on his knee. Takedown defense and remaining heavy on his bottom half will probably be a relentless theme throughout this fight, so Perez could have to feel comfortable moving explosively on that knee.

Why Asu Almabayev Will Win

• Last Fight: (W) Jose Ochoa – U DEC
• Last 5: 4-1
• Finishes: 3 KO/TKO, 9 SUB

Asu Almabayev has been wildly consistent in his own right, winning 4 of his six UFC appearance by unanimous decision. While he’s still evolving as a reliable striker, Almabayev is a smothering grappler and finds the majority of his success in controlling opponents on the bottom. That is actually the hardest opponent he’s needed to face in his profession, so he’ll must dig deep in earning this win if he desires to prove himself amongst other top-ranked fighters.

Almabayev is not necessarily striking at a high rate, but he manages to land 54% of the numerous strikes he throws. Against a gentle striker like Perez, these landed strikes will prove to be crucial as Almabayev looks to wear his opponent down. From there, once he’s able to ascertain himself within the striking, Almabayev searches his takedowns relentlessly and is capable of land 43% of them, a solid rate given he’s attempting almost five per fight.

Still, given Perez’ strong takedown defense, Almabayev can have to resort to utilizing more of his striking game. Still, he has athleticism on his side and will have the option to force Perez into a foul situation or two on the bottom, so search for him to capitalize on those moments where he’s capable of showcase his grappling.

Final Alex Perez-Asu Almabayev Prediction & Pick

Each fighters want to prove themselves as a contender and the betting odds must be barely closer for my part. Alex Perez has experience against former champions and all of the tools needed to win this fight, nevertheless it’ll all be depending on his knee and if he’s capable of move the identical on it.

Asu Almabayev, however, could have the hardest test of his profession and could have to place forth his best performance yet within the striking department. He’s had trouble ending fights prior to now, but the perfect version of Almabayev can easily control this fight for 3 rounds.

For our final betting prediction, we’ll role with Asu Almabayev to get the win on the judges’ scorecards. Alex Perez will put forth a particularly formidable effort, nevertheless it’s ultimately Almabayev who finishes each round in solid position on the bottom and earns the razor-thin decision.

Final Alex Perez-Asu Almabayev Prediction & Pick: Asu Almabayev (-192); OVER 2.5 Rounds (-200)