Ryan Loder vs. Ismail Naurdiev prediction, odds, pick for UFC Qatar

UFC Qatar: Arman Tsarukyan vs. Dan Hooker continues on the prelims with a fight between Ryan Loder and Ismail Naurdiev within the middleweight division on Saturday. Check out our UFC odds series for our Loder-Naurdiev prediction and pick.

Ryan Loder (7-2) enters UFC Qatar coming off a first-round TKO loss to Azamat Bekoev but showed his ground-and-pound skills with a TKO win over Robert Valentin before that. The 34-year-old “Man of Steel” mixes Division I wrestling with relentless pressure as he comes into his fight this weekend against Ismail Naurdiev.​

Ismail Naurdiev (24-8) comes off a unanimous decision loss to Jun Yong Park in June but previously earned a hard-fought decision win over Bruno Silva at UFC 308. The 29-year-old Austrian striker blends explosive movement with sharp kicks and counters as he comes into his fight this weekend against Ryan Loder.​

Listed below are the UFC Qatar Odds, courtesy of DraftKings. 

UFC Qatar odds: Ryan Loder-Ismail Naurdiev odds

Ryan Loder: +114

Ismail Naurdiev: -135

Over 2.5 rounds: -110

Under 2.5 rounds: -120

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Why Ryan Loder will win

• Last Fight: (L) Azamat Bekoev – KO/TKO R1
• Last 5: 3-2
• Finishes: 5 (5 KO/TKO)

Ryan Loder’s path to victory at UFC Qatar relies on leveraging his elite wrestling pedigree and relentless top pressure. With a background as a Division I wrestler, Loder excels at timing his entries, chaining takedowns, and using heavy ground-and-pound to sap his opponents’ energy and control the pace of the fight.​

Ismail Naurdiev could also be a dynamic striker, but Loder’s blueprint is to shut down the Austrian’s kicking game by crowding him, initiating clinches, and driving him to the mat. If he can keep Naurdiev pinned, Loder’s patient approach and riding ability could prevent explosive scrambles, forcing the striker to defend somewhat than attack.​

Loder has showcased his ending instincts on the bottom, demonstrated convincingly in his TKO win over Robert Valentin, and he has the physicality to impose his will for 3 hard rounds. Even after a setback against Bekoev, Loder’s experience and hunger for redemption will fuel a focused effort in Doha.​

If Loder mixes in enough takedown attempts to maintain Naurdiev guessing and avoids getting stuck at range, his path to a grinding decision and even late stoppage becomes very real. Expect Loder to dictate position and tempo as he chases a signature win at UFC Qatar.​

Why Ismail Naurdiev will win

• Last Fight: (L) Jun Yong Park – DEC
• Last 5: 2-3
• Finishes: 18 (12 KO/TKO/6 SUB)

Ismail Naurdiev can upset Ryan Loder at UFC Qatar by leveraging his superior striking defense, speed, and well-rounded skill set. Naurdiev absorbs just 1.77 significant strikes per minute in comparison with Loder’s 2.51, while also defending 64 percent of strikes in comparison with Loder’s 50 percent—showing his ability to avoid damage and frustrate wrestling-heavy opponents.​

Loder’s takedown accuracy sits at a dismal 14 percent, meaning Naurdiev’s 73 percent takedown defense needs to be enough to maintain this fight standing where he holds every advantage. When the fight stays on the feet, Naurdiev’s dynamic movement, counter-striking, and kicks will punish Loder’s slow entries and predictable wrestling shots.​​

Even when Loder secures an occasional takedown, Naurdiev has proven resilient against grapplers, using his scrambling ability and energetic guard to get back to his feet quickly. His recent win over Bruno Silva at UFC 308 demonstrated his ability to neutralize ground threats and impose his pace.​

Loder is coming off a brutal first-round knockout loss to Azamat Bekoev, which raises questions on his chin and confidence heading into this matchup. Naurdiev’s speed, versatility, and skill to dictate range should earn him a call victory or potentially a late finish at UFC Qatar.

Final Ryan Loder-Ismail Naurdiev prediction & pick

Ismail Naurdiev vs. Ryan Loder includes a clash of striking prowess and relentless wrestling at UFC Qatar. Naurdiev steps in with a wealth of high-level experience, bringing fast, technical kickboxing and the boldness of a recent knockout win, while Loder enters desperate to impose his Division I wrestling and top control.​

Early on, expect Loder to charge forward, in search of body locks and single-leg takedowns to leverage his ground-and-pound game. If he can get the Austrian to the mat early, Naurdiev’s path to victory becomes more complicated as rounds progress and fatigue sets in from defending heavy grappling.​

Nevertheless, Naurdiev’s ability to remain light on his feet and use sharp lateral movement are keys to disrupting Loder’s rhythm. With a deep striking repertoire, Naurdiev can punish failed entries, pick apart Loder at range, and regularly slow the wrestler with punishing calf kicks and body shots.​

While Loder poses an actual threat along with his takedowns and physicality, the sting goes to Naurdiev for his versatility and ending instincts. Ismail Naurdiev gets the win by decision or late TKO, outmaneuvering Loder on the feet and capitalizing on his striking advantage at UFC Qatar.

Final Ryan Loder-Saygid Izagakhmaev Prediction & Pick: Ismail Naurdiev (-135), Over 2.5 Rounds (-110)