The Patriots’ win Monday night gave the AFC two two-loss teams (and nil three-loss squads) exiting Week 13, forming a mid-2010s-like duel for the No. 1 seed with the Broncos. Within the NFC’s race for the bye slot, the image is way cloudier.
Because it stands, the NFC has a number of teams in contention for that No. 1 spot. The Bears currently hold it, but a fierce challenge appears ahead for Ben Johnson‘s resurgent team. Chicago sits at 9-3, but so do the Rams and Seahawks. Due to their tie in Dallas, the Packers are 8-3-1. The Eagles’ Week 13 loss to the Bears hurts their cause, however the defending Super Bowl champions are 8-4. The 49ers are 9-4, creating an interesting race with five weeks left.
The Bears haven’t earned a top seed since 2006, though their second-seeded squad advanced to the 2010 NFC title game. The Bears haven’t managed a playoff win since. ESPN’s Football Power Index gives the present NFC leader a 12% likelihood of holding the highest spot. That figure sits fifth within the conference.
While the Johnson hire has proven the catalyst for the Bears’ climb — after 4 straight playoff absences — the team’s decision to overhaul its offensive line has played a giant role as well. The trades for Jonah Jackson and Joe Thuney, together with the Drew Dalman signing, has helped the Bears rank second in pass block win rate and fourth in run block win rate this season. This group powered D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai to 100-yard days in Philly on Black Friday. The team also saw Jaylon Johnson and Kyler Gordon, whose offseason extension topped the slot cornerback market, activated from IR for the stretch run.
Chicago, nevertheless, closes with 4 games against over-.500 teams; the Bears draw the Packers twice and have games against the 49ers and Lions. Along with the 2 Bears tilts, the Packers have a Denver trip to make together with a Week 17 Ravens matchup. ESPN’s FPI gives Green Bay a 17% likelihood to carry the No. 1 seed. The Packers earned back-to-back No. 1 seeds — in 2020 and ’21 — but haven’t come especially near such real estate during Jordan Love‘s starter run.
Love has shown more growth in 2025, rating third in QBR despite the team battling major issues in its pass-catching corps. Tucker Kraft is out for the season, and the team has not had Jayden Reed — its leading receiver in 2023 and ’24 — available since Week 2. Reed is within the IR-return window, and the Packers have seen Christian Watson — who returned midseason from an ACL tear — step forward together with Romeo Doubs. The Pack haven’t seen an excessive amount of from first-round pick Matthew Golden, nevertheless, and the Kraft-to-Luke Musgrave gap appears wide despite the latter being drafted earlier in 2023.
The Packers didn’t exactly ride defense to those bye slots earlier this decade, with that unit being unreliable for many of Aaron Rodgers‘ stay. But Jeff Hafley‘s unit ranks sixth in scoring and fourth in yardage. EPA is a little more skeptical, slotting the Pack 14th defensively. The team’s Micah Parsons blockbuster trade/extension sequence has made an impact. Parsons’ 36 pressures trail only Myles Garrett (39) this season; the ex-Cowboy dynamo has 12.5 sacks — already just 1.5 shy of a profession high.
Concerns about Matthew Stafford‘s summer back injury were overblown, and the Seventeenth-year quarterback is pushing for an MVP — an accomplishment that will strengthen a Hall of Fame case light on accolades. The one-time original-ballot Pro Bowler’s 32:4 TD-INT ratio has powered the Rams, who’ve benefited from their Cooper Kupp-to-Davante Adams upgrade. The NFL’s lively touchdown reception leader (117) has a league-high 14 this season.
L.A. has also benefited from good injury fortune this season. Until Rob Havenstein‘s setback, the Rams’ O-line has rebounded from injury-plagued campaigns, with Puka Nacua also avoiding IR. Chris Shula‘s defense ranks second in points, putting him on the radar to develop into the third Shula appointed an NFL HC. FPI gives the Rams, who haven’t held the No. 1 seed since 2001, a 30% likelihood to achieve this — tops within the conference. The Rams have three games against sub-.500 teams, though they do face the Lions and Seahawks as well.
Seattle limited Stafford in a Week 11 loss, but Sam Darnold‘s four-INT day impeded a road win. The Seahawks have otherwise seen Darnold reward them for one more offseason QB gamble, as they gave the nomadic QB a three-year, $100.5MM deal days after trading Geno Smith. Darnold is all but certain to gather the extra $17.5MM due in February. While Kupp has stayed healthy, he only has 438 receiving yards. Jaxon Smith-Njigba has rendered that a minor concern, as his NFL-most 1,336 have him gunning for Calvin Johnson‘s single-season record (1,964), organising the 2023 first-rounder for a monster extension; he’s eligible for a brand new deal in January.
Mike Macdonald‘s defense has surpassed expectations, rating third in points allowed and EPA per play. Byron Murphy has taken a significant step forward, going from a half-sack as a rookie to seven this season, while the DeMarcus Lawrence and Ernest Jones signings have paid off as well. The Hawks might want to upend the Rams to have a sensible shot on the 1 seed, and additionally they have games against the 49ers, Colts and Panthers. FPI gives Seattle a 16% likelihood at what could be its first 1 seed since 2014.
San Francisco is someway 8-4 despite losing Nick Bosa, Fred Warner and Mykel Williams for the season — together with Brock Purdy for much of it. The recently prolonged starter has not played especially well, but he isn’t expected to be 100% after a turf toe injury until the offseason. Mac Jones‘ two-year, $7MM contract has proven to be a bargain, because the once-maligned QB has gone 5-3 as a starter this season. Jones ranks tenth in QBR. Robert Saleh‘s return has also aided the 49ers, who rank eighth defensively (though, EPA is way more skeptical, slotting Saleh’s crew twenty fourth).
Given a 15% likelihood at claiming what could be their third No. 1 seed of the Kyle Shanahan era, the 49ers follow their Titans matchup with games against the Colts, Bears and Seahawks. Just one road game (Indianapolis) stays on San Francisco’s docket.
FPI gives the Eagles only an 8% likelihood at the highest seed, despite the team’s head-to-head Rams tiebreaker. Philly’s latest OC change, installing longtime Nick Sirianni coworker Kevin Patullo within the play-calling role, has keyed an uneven Super Bowl title defense. Saquon Barkley has not come near matching his stratospheric 2024 form, and QBR ranks Jalen Hurts nineteenth. Top O-lineman Lane Johnson has a Lisfranc injury, though he isn’t on IR, while more A.J. Brown drama has unfolded ahead of likely 2026 trade rumors.
While Vic Fangio‘s defense looked higher following some deadline trades (most notably the Jaelan Phillips move), it surrendered 281 rushing yards to the Bears after a collapse in Dallas. The Eagles’ schedule does cooperate for a possible third No. 1 seed since 2017. After a game against a potentially Justin Herbert-less Chargers team, two Commanders tilts await. Philly does have a Buffalo trip in Week 17, nevertheless.
Who will find yourself claiming the NFC’s top seed? Vote in PFR’s latest poll and weigh in together with your thoughts within the comments section.