Mansur Abdul-Malik vs. Antonio Trocoli prediction, odds, pick for UFC 323

The UFC is back on the planet’s fight capital of Las Vegas, Nevada because the UFC 323 Early Prelims proceed with this next bout within the Middleweight (185) Division. Mansur Abdul-Malik of Maryland will tackle Brazil’s Antonio Trocoli in the cardboard’s most lopsided ebetting line. Check our UFC 323 odds series for the Abdul-Malik-Trocoli prediction and pick.

Mansur Abdul-Malik (8-0-1) has gone 2-0-1 contained in the UFC since 2024. After two dominant wins via knockout, Abdul-Malik saw his win over Cody Brundage overturned to a ‘Draw’ per the Georgia State Athletic Commission. Now, he’ll get one other likelihood at a previously scheduled opponent in Trocoli. Abdul-Malik stands 6-foot-2 with a 79.5-inch reach.

Antonio Trocoli (12-5) remains to be looking for his first UFC win with an 0-2 record in 2024. He’s been tasked with very tough opponents in Shara Magomedov and Tresean Gore, but his road won’t get much easier as the cardboard’s biggest betting underdog. Trocoli stands 6-foot-5 with an 80-inch reach.

Listed here are the UFC 323 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings. 

UFC 323 Odds: Mansur Abdul-Malik-Antonio Trocoli Odds

Mansur Abdul-Malik: -1150

Antonio Trocoli: +650

Over 1.5 rounds: +150

Under 1.5 rounds: -195

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Why Mansur Abdul-Malik Will Win

• Last Fight: (D) Cody Brundage – DRAW (result overturned)
• Last 5: 4-0-1
• Finishes: 7 KO/TKO, 1 SUB

Mansur Abdul-Malik saw an odd finish to his last fight as he was originally given the unanimous decision after a dominant three rounds. Nonetheless, there was an accidental headbutt initiated by Abdul-Malik, which clearly dazed Brundage in the method. The Georgia Athletic Commission ruled “protocol error” in throughout the evaluation and break time Brundage was given. Despite the draw on his record, Abdul-Malik was still winning the bout convincingly and would have likely won if the foul had never occurred.

He’ll have a likelihood to redeem himself against Antonio Trocoli, who he was originally scheduled to fight last February attributable to Trocoli dropping out. He’ll have one other crack on the willing striker as Abdul-Malik shall be searching for an emphatic knockout on this one. His hands have proved to be devastating during his transient skilled run and he’s notched all of his wins by finish. During this fight, finding the knockout together with his hands shall be the clearest path to victory.

Still, Trocoli is a dangerous opponent and Abdul-Malik will wish to avoid mixing things up on the bottom. He’s much faster together with his hands striking at range and despite not having a reach advantage here, will do a a lot better job of controlling the gap opposite his opponent. With an 82% takedown defense, search for Mansur Abdul-Malik to be in the driving force’s seat during this fight.

Why Antonio Trocoli Will Win

• Last Fight: (L) Tresean Gore – SUB (standing guillotine, R1)
• Last 5: 2-2-0-1
• Finishes: 3 KO/TKO, 5 SUB

Antonio Trocoli hasn’t had a simple run up up to now and will have his back against the wall if he’s unable to secure his first UFC win in 4 appearances. He’s incredibly gifted from a physical standpoint and has shown flashes of great athletic ability. Prior to the UFC, Trocoli was extremely dangerous together with his submission grappling and was the dominant fighter in most of his matchups. Nonetheless, since seeing UFC-level competition, Trocoli hasn’t quite been capable of put things together fluidly.

He’ll definitely have the grappling advantage during this fight, but his previous bouts suggest he could have trouble finding the takedown and getting the fight to the bottom. Trocoli should look to press Abdul-Malik along the fence to negate a few of his offense. From there, Trocoli could prove to be the stronger fighter keeping his opponent within the clinch and landing shots from there.

Ultimately, Trocoli can have to look a lot better than he’s been prior to now. His striking defense is terribly low at just 23% and he cannot afford to be absorbing 67% of the shots coming back his way, especially at Middleweight. Trocoli’s only likelihood to win this fight shall be behind a masterful defensive effort.

Final Mansur Abdul-Malik-Antonio Trocoli Prediction & Pick

Each fighters are able to the flashy finish and although underdog Antonio Trocoli can have a submission advantage during this matchup, the -1150 favorite in Mansur Abdul-Malik has shown a lot better consistency up up to now. Following a recent ‘draw’ ruling, he’ll have some added motivation to complete this fight with an exciting knockout.

Mansur Abdul-Malik lands 4.27 significant strikes per minute at 48% accuracy. With the dearth of defense from Antonio Trocoli, evident of his previous fights, I do not see a situation where Abdul-Malik is not capable of land clean and put this fight to an end. Expect this to be a fast finish, likely cashing the entire under.

Final Mansur Abdul-Malik-Antonio Trocoli Prediction & Pick: Mansur Abdul-Malik (-1150); UNDER 1.5 Rounds (-195)