Colorado, Tampa Bay, and Carolina enter the stretch run sitting near the highest of the NHL standings and the Stanley Cup futures board, separating themselves from a crowded field of contenders. With each club tracking among the many league leaders in points percentage, goal differential, and underlying five-on-five metrics, this trio has established a transparent statistical edge that matches its short prices to win the 2026 Cup.
Bookmakers and models still see a spot between this trio and the remainder of the league. Bet365 continues to list the Avalanche, Lightning, and Hurricanes within the shortest tier of costs, reflecting each current form and the statistical profiles of their key skaters and goalies. The names and numbers backing those prices help explain why the market has been so stubborn in keeping these three on the front of the pack.
Colorado Avalanche: MacKinnon Driving A Loaded Core
Colorado’s status because the leading favorite starts with Nathan MacKinnon’s MVP-level season. Through 51 games, MacKinnon has 38 goals and 50 assists for 88 points, averaging 1.73 points per game and carrying a plus-minus within the mid-40s. He leads the team in all major offensive categories and ranks near the highest of the league in each goals and points.
The support behind him is substantial. Martin Necas has produced 22 goals and 40 assists for 62 points in 51 games, giving Colorado a second high-end play driver able to handling top competition and second-unit power-play duties. From the blue line, Cale Makar has 15 goals and 41 assists for 56 points in 51 games, maintaining greater than a point-per-game pace while logging heavy minutes and driving transition from the back end.
Colorado’s depth scoring also holds up. Brock Nelson has 27 goals and 19 assists for 46 points, providing ending in the course of the lineup and on the facility play. Artturi Lehkonen adds 17 goals and 21 assists for 38 points and a superb plus-minus, contributing strong two-way minutes and forechecking pressure. Veterans like Brent Burns and Josh Manson chip in from the blue line, with Burns at 8 goals and 17 assists and Manson adding 4 goals and 17 assists while leading the team in penalty minutes.
Team-wide, the Avalanche combines this production with top-end underlying numbers. They sit near 4 goals per game, rank among the many league leaders in shots per game, and suppress probabilities well enough to keep up a powerful goal differential. That mix of star power, depth, and territorial dominance is precisely what Cup favorites normally appear like at this stage of the season.
Tampa Bay Lightning: Kucherov And Vasilevskiy Keep the Window Open
Tampa Bay’s case is built around a well-known pairing: elite scoring from Nikita Kucherov and reliable goaltending from Andrei Vasilevskiy. Kucherov leads the Lightning with 26 goals and 54 assists for 80 points, comfortably pacing the team in each goals and assists while driving considered one of the league’s most dangerous power plays. His playmaking on the half-wall and vision through seams remain central to Tampa’s offensive identity.
Behind Kucherov, Tampa’s forward group continues to supply layered production. The Lightning have several forwards tracking within the 40–60 point range, offering enough scoring across the highest nine to avoid becoming a one-line team. Their power play stays a strength, with Kucherov’s distribution supported by a net-front presence and a degree shot that keeps penalty kills honest.
In goal, Vasilevskiy stabilizes Tampa’s entire profile. Over 33 appearances, he holds a goals-against average just above 2.00 and a save percentage around .920, numbers that place him amongst probably the most reliable starters within the league this season. He has faced well over 800 shots already and continues to supply high-end shot-stopping, especially in high-leverage situations and penalty-kill minutes.
Team-wise, Tampa’s overall goals against sit below 2.50 per game, with opponents allowed greater than a goal per game, higher than that against Lightning shooters. That gap highlights how often Tampa wins the battle on each ends of the ice when Kucherov and Vasilevskiy are on the ice. The query is less about whether the core remains to be elite and more about whether or not they can stay healthy and fresh through one other long spring.
Carolina Hurricanes: Aho, Jarvis, And A Balanced Attack
Carolina’s position in the highest three comes from a mix of territorial control and a more balanced scoring picture. Sebastian Aho leads the Hurricanes with 52 points, on 17 goals and 35 assists, again serving as the first driver at center. His ability to handle top matchups, win draws, and generate offense in all situations anchors Carolina’s top line and power play.
Seth Jarvis has emerged because the club’s leading goal scorer with 23 goals, adding enough assists to remain near the highest of the team’s points list. His scoring touch on the wing gives Carolina the ending threat it has sometimes lacked in previous seasons when probabilities didn’t at all times translate into goals. Beyond Aho and Jarvis, the Hurricanes feature multiple forwards in the teenagers in goals and 30-plus points, contributing to a deep, wave-based attack.
The blue line also plays a serious role. Carolina’s defense corps moves the puck efficiently, restricts high-danger probabilities, and keeps shots to the skin. Newer additions and rising players like K’Andre Miller, with 4 goals and 18 assists, reinforce a bunch that may log heavy minutes and still drive play forward. The team’s overall goal differential sits comfortably positive, powered by strong five-on-five metrics and respectable special teams.
Carolina’s special teams mirror this balance. The ability play sits within the low 20-percent range, while the penalty kill tracks around 80 percent, solid if not spectacular numbers when combined with their underlying dominance in shot share and expected goals. If the Hurricanes can proceed to convert probabilities at the next rate and get regular goaltending, their statistical profile aligns well with a serious run at finally breaking through to a championship.
Why These Three Stay On Top
The common thread for Colorado, Tampa Bay, and Carolina is obvious: each has a legitimate MVP-caliber forward, not less than one elite defenseman or goaltender, and enough depth scoring to face up to injuries and matchup games in a seven-game series. Their records through late January reflect that blend, as does their sustained presence atop models and the futures board.
Colorado leans on MacKinnon, Makar, and a deep supporting forged that drives possession and offense at an elite rate. Tampa relies on Kucherov’s playmaking and Vasilevskiy’s goaltending backbone to maintain its window open despite an aging core. Carolina continues to overwhelm teams with pace and structure, led by Aho, Jarvis, and a mobile blue line.
Because the season moves toward the trade deadline and playoff positioning, any major injury, slump, or roster move could still shift the percentages. For now, though, the names and numbers at the highest of those three rosters explain why the market continues to treat them because the clearest favorites to lift the Stanley Cup in 2026.