Dan Hooker vs. Benoit Saint-Denis prediction, odds, pick for UFC 325

UFC 325: Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopes 2 continues on the foremost card with the co-main event between Dan Hooker and Benoit Saint-Denis within the lightweight division on Saturday. Try our UFC odds series for our Hooker-Saint-Denis prediction and pick.

Dan “The Hangman” Hooker (24-13) looks to rebound after his resurgence was halted by a submission loss to Arman Tsarukyan last November. Before that setback, Hooker proved his elite durability with a gritty split-decision win over Mateusz Gamrot. He now faces a violent pressure test as he comes into his fight this weekend against Benoit Saint-Denis.

Benoit Saint-Denis (16-3, 1 NC) storms into UFC 325 off back-to-back finishes, starching Beneil Dariush in 16 seconds and choking out Mauricio Ruffy after dominating grappling sequences. His relentless pressure, lethal submissions, and head-kick KO of Matt Frevola underscore his surging menace as he comes into his fight this weekend against Dan Hooker.

Listed here are the UFC 325 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings. 

UFC 325 odds: Dan Hooker-Benoit Saint-Denis odds

Dan Hooker: +240

Benoit Saint-Denis: -340

Over 1.5 rounds: -188

Under 1.5 rounds: +145

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Why Dan Hooker will win

• Last Fight: (L) Arman Tsarukyan – SUB R2 
• Last 5: 3-2
• Finishes: 18 (11 KO/TKO/7 SUB)

Dan Hooker’s edge over Benoit Saint-Denis starts with experience at the best level, having gone five rounds in wars with elite lightweights like Dustin Poirier and consistently facing ranked opposition. He has proven he can survive hellacious pressure, adapt mid-fight, and still construct offense late.

His six-foot frame, 75-inch reach, and clean straight shots down the center are tailor-made to intercept Saint-Denis as he crashes the pocket. Hooker’s calf kicks and teeps can disrupt the Frenchman’s stance, slowing the blitz entries that fuel his grappling and clinch game.

Defensively, Hooker’s 80% takedown defense and improved clinch awareness give him tools to stuff early shots and force prolonged striking exchanges. The longer this stays on the feet, the more Hooker’s layered combos and body work can chip away at Saint-Denis’ gas tank.

Saint-Denis is incredibly dangerous early, but his willingness to eat damage to present damage plays into Hooker’s durability and countering opportunities. If Hooker survives the initial onslaught, his experience over championship distances and superior shot selection favor him to tug away on the cards or discover a late stoppage.

Why Benoit Saint-Denis will win

• Last Fight: (W) Beneil Dariush – KO/TKO R1
• Last 5: 4-1
• Finishes: 16 (5 KO/TKO/11 SUB)

Benoit Saint-Denis has the tools to interrupt Dan Hooker with relentless pace and physicality. His forward pressure, clinch strength, and willingness to bite down in chaos can force Hooker onto the back foot where he struggles to reset defensively.

Saint-Denis’ grappling edge is a serious separator. With a high takedown rate and dangerous submissions, he can chain shots, mat returns, and back-takes to sap Hooker’s cardio and limit his long-range weapons.

On the feet, Saint-Denis throws with serious intent, carrying ending power that translates late as a result of his conditioning. Hooker’s recent damage, including hospital trips and a broken nose around his last camp, raises durability questions against this sustained punishment.

If Saint-Denis survives the early technical striking reads, his pressure can turn this right into a war of attrition fought on his terms. Over three hard rounds, that grind-heavy style and ending instinct favor Saint-Denis to either overwhelm Hooker for a stoppage or clearly bank rounds with control and damage.

Final Dan Hooker-Benoit Saint-Denis prediction & pick

This matchup seems like a razor-close war, however the slight lean goes to Benoit Saint-Denis by finish. His southpaw pressure, suffocating clinch entries, and chain wrestling are tailored to pull Dan Hooker into the sort of defensive shell that nullifies his long-range striking tools.

Saint-Denis’ ability to combine high-volume ground-and-pound with back-takes and front chokes is a key separator against a fighter who has been submitted multiple times and has absorbed huge damage in recent times. If he forces repeated stand-ups and scrambles, Hooker’s tendency to simply accept exchanges and eat shots becomes a liability, not a bonus.

Hooker absolutely has live underdog paths along with his experience, length, and layered kickboxing combos, especially if he can keep this in open space and punish entries. Nevertheless, three-round geography and the statistical edge in ending rate favor Saint-Denis if this turns into the expected high-variance brawl.

Expect early competitiveness while Hooker frames, jabs, and chops on the legs, however the momentum to swing as Saint-Denis starts to win clinch positions and ride top time. The decision is Saint-Denis to eventually break Hooker’s defense and secure a late submission or ground-and-pound stoppage.

Final Dan Hooker-Benoit Saint-Denis Prediction & Pick: Benoit Saint-Denis (-340), Over 1.5 Rounds (-188)