Sean Strickland vs. Anthony Hernandez prediction, odds, pick for UFC Houston

UFC Houston: Sean Strickland vs. Anthony Hernandez continues with the important event bout between Sean Strickland and Anthony Hernandez within the middleweight division on Saturday. Try our UFC odds series for our Strickland-Hernandez prediction and pick.

Sean Strickland (29-7) enters this bout seeking to rebuild momentum after falling short in his title rematch against Dricus Du Plessis at UFC 312 in February 2025. Before that split decision loss, the previous champion secured a decisive victory over Paulo Costa, counting on his trademark pressure and jab-heavy style as he comes into his fight this weekend against Anthony Hernandez.

Anthony Hernandez (15-2) rides a blistering eight-fight win streak into this important event, most recently dominating Roman Dolidze via fourth-round submission in August 2025. “Fluffy” previously secured a unanimous decision over Brendan Allen and a fifth-round TKO of Michel Pereira, showcasing his relentless cardio and grappling as he comes into his fight this weekend against Sean Strickland.

UFC Houston Odds, courtesy of DraftKings. 

UFC Houston odds: Sean Strickland-Anthony Hernandez odds

Sean Strickland: +230

Anthony Hernandez: -285

Over 4.5 rounds: -175

Under 4.5 rounds: +135

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Why Sean Strickland will win

• Last Fight: (W) Roman Dolidze – SUB R4 
• Last 5: 5-0
• Finishes: 12 (3 KO/TKO/9 SUB)

Sean Strickland enters this contest because the stylistic nightmare that may derail the Anthony Hernandez hype train. “Tarzan” boasts one of the effective defensive guards within the division, with a takedown defense rate of 84% that forces grapplers right into a striking match they can not win. His unique upright stance and hand-fighting ability allow him to stuff entries without compromising his position, a critical asset against a chain-wrestler like Hernandez.

Hernandez relies on chaos and cardio to drown opponents, but Strickland is a cardio machine in his own right who thrives in deep waters. We’ve got seen Hernandez struggle to implement his game when he cannot secure early takedowns, often leaving him exposed on the feet where his striking defense is porous. Strickland’s unrelenting jab and pressure will punish these openings, keeping Hernandez on the back foot and unable to establish his shots.

Moreover, Strickland’s experience in five-round important events gives him a big edge in pacing and composure. While Hernandez is dangerous, he has never faced a defensive puzzle like Strickland who can systematically dismantle a grappler’s will by denying their primary win condition. Expect Strickland to stuff the early takedowns, establish his jab, and pick Hernandez apart for a dominant decision victory.

Why Anthony Hernandez will win

• Last Fight: (L) Dricus Du Plessis – DEC
• Last 5: 3-2
• Finishes: 15 (11 KO/TKO/4 SUB)

Anthony Hernandez enters this important event as essentially the most dangerous and unpredictable force Sean Strickland has faced in years. “Fluffy” brings a chaotic, high-pace grappling style that may overwhelm even essentially the most disciplined defensive fighters. His ability to chain takedowns, submission attempts, and scrambles creates a level of pressure that breaks opponents mentally and physically, a stark contrast to the methodical pace Strickland prefers.

Strickland’s upright stance and reliance on parrying shots leave him vulnerable to level changes and unorthodox entries, that are Hernandez’s specialty. We’ve got seen Strickland struggle when forced to defend against relentless chain wrestling that does not allow him to reset, and Hernandez averages over 6 takedowns per quarter-hour with relentless pursuit.
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​Moreover, Hernandez’s cardio is known, allowing him to keep up a frantic pace for 25 minutes that may expose Strickland’s tendency to coast in later rounds. While Strickland is durable, he has never faced a grappler who can weaponize pace and transitions like Hernandez.

Expect Hernandez to eat a couple of jabs early but relentlessly pursue the takedown until he breaks Strickland’s rhythm. Once the fight hits the mat or clinch, Hernandez’s superior scrambling and submission threat will allow him to regulate the fight and secure a shocking upset victory.

Final Sean Strickland-Anthony Hernandez prediction & pick

Anthony Hernandez enters this important event because the relentless force able to overwhelming Sean Strickland’s defensive shell. “Fluffy” brings a chaotic, high-pace grappling style that averages over 6 takedowns per quarter-hour, a level of pressure that may break even essentially the most disciplined fighters.

While Strickland boasts excellent takedown defense, he relies on an upright stance and hand-fighting that leaves him vulnerable to relentless chain wrestling and unorthodox level changes. Hernandez excels at creating scrambles and transitions that force opponents to work continuously, a pace that Strickland has historically struggled to match when forced out of his rhythm.​

Moreover, Hernandez’s cardio is known, allowing him to push a frantic pace for 25 minutes that may expose Strickland’s tendency to coast in later rounds. Strickland’s durability is unquestioned, but he has never faced a grappler who can weaponize pace and submission threats like Hernandez.

Expect Hernandez to eat a couple of jabs early but relentlessly pursue the takedown until he breaks Strickland’s will, as he secures a fourth-round submission victory, likely via rear-naked choke, after exhausting Strickland with constant grappling exchanges.

Final Sean Strickland-Anthony Hernandez Prediction & Pick: Anthony Hernandez (-285), Under 4.5 Rounds (+135)