Jacobe Smith vs. Josiah Harrell prediction, odds, pick for UFC Houston

We’re back with one other betting prediction and pick for the UFC Houston Principal Card as we turn attention towards this short-notice bout at Welterweight (170). Jacobe Smith of Dallas, Texas will tackle the returning Josiah Harrell stepping in to save lots of this bout. Check our UFC odds series for the Smith-Harrell prediction and pick.

Jacobe Smith (11-0) has gone 2-0 through his first UFC appearances in 2025. After earning a contract on DWCS with a knockout win, Smith has followed it up with a first-round knockout and a submission win in his first UFC motion. He pivots opponents and is available in the sizable betting favorite, standing 5-foot-10 with a 72-inch reach.

Josiah Harrell (11-0) can be making his UFC debut after originally being slated to fight Jack Della Maddalena at UFC 290 in 2023. Following a serious medical issue, Harrell has posted a 4-0 record in other organizations since and fills into this spot on just five days notice. Harrell stands 5-foot-7 with a 67-inch reach.

UFC Houston Odds, courtesy of DraftKings. 

UFC Houston Odds: Jacobe Smith-Josiah Harrell Odds

Jacobe Smith: -290

Josiah Harrell: +235

Over 2.5 rounds:

Under 2.5 rounds:

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Why Jacobe Smith Will Win

• Last Fight: (W) Niko Price – SUB (rear naked choke, R2)
• Last 5: 5-0
• Finishes: 8 KO/TKO, 1 SUB

In facing a seasoned veteran like Niko Price for just his second UFC appearance, highly-touted prospect Jacobe Smith added a brand new wrinkle to his game in notching the primary submission win of his profession. It didn’t take long before he seriously damaged Price and managed to take the back to complete the fight, further proving that Smith is a serious name to look at within the division moving forward. He was originally scheduled to fight an aggressive striker in Seok Hyeon Ko, but he’ll need to shift gears in an unexpected turn of events.

There aren’t many holes in Jacobe Smith’s skill set and he’s about as complete of a two-fight UFC prospect you are ever going to see. He’s extremely decisive together with his striking and flaunts one-strike knockout ability with either his fists or kicks. Still, he’s facing a steadily improving opponent and he won’t give you the chance to take Harrell frivolously during this one.

Still, Smith’s game plan should remain the identical as fighting with crisp technique and conviction should prove to be effective against any opponent. Look ahead to him to be extremely patient through the opening round while slowly gauging the space and waiting for Harrell to over-extend so he can land the ending blow needed to finish this fight.

Why Josiah Harrell Will Win

• Last Fight: (W) Bekmyrza Dosmatov – TKO (corner stoppage, R3)
• Last 5: 5-0
• Finishes: 6 KO/TKO, 4 SUB

After almost fighting Jack Della Maddalena for his UFC debut in 2023, Josiah Harrell was diagnosed with a rare brain disease (Moyamoya) that required immediate surgery, effective putting his UFC dreams on pause. He made a miraculous return to the game in 2024 and after notching four-straight victories, he finally got the decision to step in on short notice to save lots of this fight. Pending all of his medical examinations, this may be a momentous debut and a real comeback story manifesting itself.

Harrell is a really measured striker with six knockouts on his record and comes into this bout after forcing his opponents’ corner to stop the fight because of his consistent onslaught. He’s also very strong in his striking stance and difficult to bring down, but greater than comfortable fighting on the mat with 4 submissions as well.

Most of all, Harrell is amazingly persistent in his approach and displays tremendous toughness whatever the circumstances. He ought to be in for some inevitable adversity because the betting underdog, but expect full-blown effort out of him each minute he’s within the cage.

Final Jacobe Smith-Josiah Harrell Prediction & Pick

That is already an enormous comeback story for Josiah Harrell and whatever the result, he’ll come out of this a winner knowing he exacted his goal of creating it to the UFC stage. His path to victory won’t be easy against a refined opponent like Jacobe Smith, however the MMA community will definitely be pulling for his success during this debut.

Still, from a betting perspective, Jacobe Smith is the clear alternative to win this fight as he’s already hit the bottom running when it comes to facing increasingly difficult UFC opposition. His previous opponent was on an analogous trajectory, but don’t expect Smith to take Harrell frivolously in any respect knowing his skill set and determination.

We’ll need to roll with Jacobe Smith to get the win on this fight as he should control things from start to complete together with his crisp striking and talent to vary levels throughout.

Final Jacobe Smith-Josiah Harrell Prediction & Pick: Jacobe Smith (-290)