Chidi Njokuani vs. Carlos Leal prediction, odds, pick for UFC Houston

UFC Houston: Sean Strickland vs. Anthony Hernandez continues on the prelims with a bout between Chidi Njokuani and Carlos Leal within the welterweight division on Saturday. Take a look at our UFC odds series for our Njokuani-Leal prediction and pick.

Chidi Njokuani (25-11) is seeking to rebound after a fast submission loss to Jake Matthews in July 2025 halted his two-fight win streak. Before that setback, “Chidi Bang Bang” had secured back-to-back victories over Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos and Rhys McKee as he comes into his fight this weekend against Carlos Leal.

Carlos Leal (22-7) is seeking to bounce back after a devastating 42-second knockout loss to Muslim Salikhov in July 2025. Prior to that setback, “The Lion” had secured a first-round TKO victory over Alex Morono in March 2025, demonstrating his explosive power as he comes into his fight this weekend against Chidi Njokuani.

UFC Houston Odds, courtesy of DraftKings. 

UFC Houston odds: Chidi Njokuani-Carlos Leal odds

Chidi Njokuani: +110

Carlos Leal: -130

Over 2.5 rounds: +124

Under 2.5 rounds: -160

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Why Chidi Njokuani will win

• Last Fight: (L) Jake Matthews – SUB R1
• Last 5: 3-2
• Finishes: 16 (15 KO/TKO/1 SUB)

Chidi Njokuani enters this contest with distinct physical benefits that ought to dictate the terms of engagement. Standing 6-foot-3 with an 80-inch reach, “Chidi Bang Bang” enjoys an enormous four-inch height and six-inch reach advantage over the compact Carlos Leal.

Njokuani’s path to victory lies in his ability to keep up distance and punish Leal’s aggressive entries together with his signature knees and long-range kicks. Leal’s tendency to plod forward and hunt for giant hooks makes him a first-rate goal for Njokuani’s crisp counters, very similar to we saw in his dismantling of Rhys McKee.

Leal’s recent 42-second knockout loss to Muslim Salikhov exposed his vulnerability to technical strikers who can exploit his defensive lapses. Njokuani possesses similar knockout power and precision, with 15 of his 25 wins coming via KO/TKO, often in the primary round.

Expect Njokuani to circle away from Leal’s power side, frustrating the Brazilian with teeps and jabs before landing a decisive knee up the center as Leal attempts to shut the space. By controlling the range and pace, Njokuani should secure a highlight-reel knockout or a dominant decision victory.

Why Carlos Leal will win

• Last Fight: (L) Muslim Salikhov – KO/TKO R2
• Last 5: 3-2
• Finishes: 13 (11 KO/TKO/2 SUB)

Carlos Leal enters this matchup with the explosive power and aggressive grappling needed to use Chidi Njokuani’s historical weaknesses. “The Lion” has shown he can close the space rapidly, as seen in his first-round knockout of Alex Morono, and this pressure can be key against a rangy striker like Njokuani who wilts when backed up.

Njokuani’s takedown defense has been a recurring issue throughout his profession, often struggling against opponents who commit to the clinch and ground game. Leal averages over 3 takedowns per quarter-hour and possesses the physical strength to muscle Njokuani against the cage and drag him to the mat where the American is least comfortable.

We’ve got seen Njokuani fade in fights where he cannot dictate the range, and Leal’s relentless forward pressure is designed to interrupt opponents’ rhythm. Leal’s durability, despite his recent loss, allows him to walk through shots to land his own heavy hooks and initiate grappling exchanges.

Expect Leal to soak up some early leg kicks but ultimately force Njokuani right into a brawl or clinch battle. Once inside, Leal’s superior grappling and ground-and-pound should allow him to secure a TKO victory or a dominant decision by controlling the fight on the canvas.

Final Chidi Njokuani-Carlos Leal prediction & pick

Chidi Njokuani enters this matchup with distinct physical benefits that ought to dictate the terms of engagement and result in a violent finish. Standing 6-foot-3 with an 80-inch reach, “Chidi Bang Bang” enjoys an enormous four-inch height and six-inch reach advantage over the compact Carlos Leal, which is able to allow him to punish Leal’s aggressive entries with ease.

Leal’s recent 42-second knockout loss to Muslim Salikhov exposed a vulnerability to technical strikers who can exploit his defensive lapses while closing distance. Njokuani possesses similar knockout power and precision, with 15 of his 25 profession wins coming via KO/TKO, often utilizing his signature knees up the center to intercept opponents.

While Leal will try and pressure and grapple, Njokuani has shown improved takedown defense and the power to keep up range with teeps and jabs. Leal’s tendency to plod forward makes him a first-rate goal for Njokuani’s crisp counters, very similar to we saw in his dismantling of Rhys McKee.

Expect Njokuani to circle away from Leal’s power side early, frustrating the Brazilian before landing a decisive knee or head kick as Leal attempts to force a clinch, as he secures a first-round knockout victory, adding one other highlight-reel finish to his resume.

Final Chidi Njokuani-Carlos Leal Prediction & Pick: Chidi Njokuani (+110), Under 1.5 Rounds (-160)