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The UFC Houston Prelims proceed from the Toyota Center as we bring you a betting prediction and pick for this next bout within the Flyweight (125) Division. Jamaica’s Ode Osbourne takes on Alibi Idiris of Kazakhstan as each fighters hope to rebound following a loss. Check our UFC odds series for the Osbourne-Idiris prediction and pick.
Ode Osbourne (13-9) has gone 5-7 since joining the UFC roster in 2020. Following a powerful begin to his tenure, Osbourne has been on a downswing with a 1-4 record over his last five fights. He’s trying to redeem one other loss as he tries to salvage his current record. Osbourne stands 5-foot-7 with a 73-inch reach.
Alibi Idiris (10-1) is looking for his first UFC win following a loss to Joseph Morales during his UFC debut. As much as that time, Idiris had won all ten of his bouts under NAIZA while going 2-0 during The Ultimate Fighter, so this serves as a giant spot to prove himself once more. Idiris stands 5-foot-6 with a 68-inch reach.
UFC Houston Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Houston Odds: Ode Osbourne-Alibi Idiris Odds
Ode Osbourne: +110
Alibi Idiris: -130
Over 1.5 rounds: -210
Under 1.5 rounds: +160
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Why Ode Osbourne Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) Steve Erceg – U DEC
- Last 5: 1-4
- Finishes: 5 KO/TKO, 5 SUB
Ode Osbourne took an enormous step up in competition during his last bout in facing a former title challenger in Steve Erceg. Despite clearly losing each of the three rounds, Osbourne managed to avoid the finish and had his own moments of success throughout the fight. He’s rather more experienced and has faced a much higher level of competition opposite his opponent on this one, so expect Osbourne to hold some confidence heading into this fight despite his recent skid.
Osbourne is incredibly explosive with all of his movements and may finish the fight from anywhere if he finds a gap. His wild style has gotten him knocked out and submitted prior to now, but Osbourne is all the time guaranteed to place every ounce of his effort into each fight. If he’s in a position to shift the momentum at any point with a giant shot, do not be surprised if he’s in a position to finish the fight quickly.
While having speed and athleticism on his side, Osbourne will all the time have the advantage of unpredictability as his opponent has been known for a gradual wrestling style. 4 of his opponents’ wins have come by the use of decision, so Osbourne would greatly profit from pushing a pace and forcing his opponent to complete the fight inside the space.
Why Alibi Idiris Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) Joseph Morales – SUB (triangle choke, R2)
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 4 KO/TKO, 1 SUB
Alibi Idiris got here into the Ultimate Fighter finale as a -500 betting favorite because of his spotless record as much as that time. While Idiris was game to exchange with Joseph Morales, he clearly wasn’t expecting such effective resistance on the feet from his opponent. On the bottom, Morales proved rather more opportunistic in securing the submission victory while Idiris looked shocked and misplaced in the course of the loss.
This time around, Idiris won’t give you the option to underestimate any UFC competition, even when Osbourne has lost 4 of his last five fights. The gap in octagon time is important and although Idiris has all of the tools to be dominant during this fight, he won’t give you the option to fold under the pressure and lights of the moment.
Idiris can dominate during this particular matchup if he’s in a position to weather the early storm of Osbourne’s striking and return along with his chain wrestling. Osbourne notably has 4 losses by submission, essentially the most of any method in his profession, so Idiris can find the upper hand if he’s in a position to force dominant position on the bottom.
Final Ode Osbourne-Alibi Idiris Prediction & Pick
This must be an exciting fight if Ode Osbourne is in a position to lead the dance and control the pace, but Alibi Idiris will probably be rather more fascinated by grabbing a hold of Osbourne and keeping him on the mat. Osbourne’s 66% takedown defense will probably be a recurring storyline throughout this fight as Idiris must be trying to notch the takedowns after realizing he’s out-matched on the feet.
I expect Ode Osbourne’s experience to be an enormous think about conserving his energy and keeping his striking output consistent throughout this one. If he’s in a position to effectively stuff the takedowns and never take too many risks in leaving himself open to be countered, he must have enough variability in his striking arsenal to catch Idiris off-guard sooner or later.
For our final pick, we’ll roll with the more experienced Osbourne as this fight should see the later rounds given what a win would mean for either side.
Final Ode Osbourne-Alibi Idiris Prediction & Pick: Ode Osbourne (+110); OVER 1.5 Rounds (-210)