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UFC Mexico City: Brandon Moreno vs. Lone’er Kavanagh continues on the important card with the co-main event between Chito Vera and David Martinez within the bantamweight division on Saturday. Take a look at our UFC odds series for our Vera-Martinez prediction and pick.
Marlon “Chito” Vera (23-11-1) finds himself in a difficult spot, rebounding from his title-fight loss to Sean O’Malley after previously edging out Pedro Munhoz on the cards but then losing three in a row, most recently a razor-close split decision defeat to Aiemann Zahabi. The durable Ecuadorian sniper still leans on late-fight surges, calf kicks, and counter power as he looks to buck the trend and get back into the win column this weekend against David Martinez.
David “El Toro” Martinez (13-1) has been on a tear, securing a dominant decision win on DWCS to earn his UFC contract. He then followed it up with a brutal first-round knockout of Saimon Oliveira in his UFC debut, and a dominant decision win contained in the Octagon against Rob Font that showcased his well-rounded aggression and relentless pressure, as he comes into his fight this weekend against Chito Vera.
UFC Mexico City Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Mexico City Odds: Chito Vera-Daniel Cormier Odds
Chito Vera: +260
David Martinez: -325
Over 2.5 rounds: -425
Under 2.5 rounds: +300
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Why Chito Vera Will Win
Vera won’t be on his best run, but this remains to be a large step up for David Martinez when it comes to experience and sturdiness. Across 25 UFC bouts, Vera has never been finished, even while sharing the cage with elite names like Sean O’Malley, Deiveson Figueiredo, and Cory Sandhagen.
That level of five-round, top-10 seasoning matters against a hitter like Martinez, who has largely been styling on regional and lower-tier UFC opposition during his nine-fight winning streak. If Martinez can’t seriously hurt Vera early, he’s going to must navigate Vera’s trademark late surges, calf kicks, and constructing pressure down the stretch.
Vera also does his best work in grimy clinch exchanges where he can elbow, knee, and attack submissions, precisely the sort of fight Martinez tends to ask when he marches forward. In a three-rounder at altitude, the most definitely script is Martinez starting sharp, but Vera’s toughness, body work, and leg kicks steadily taking up, resulting in a swingy but clear decision for the previous title challenger once he’s dialed in and walking Martinez down.
Why David Martinez Will Win
Martinez is available in riding a wave of momentum that Vera simply doesn’t have at once.
The Mexican is 13-1 with ten knockouts and an eight-fight win streak, including a violent knee-and-punches finish of Saimon Oliveira and a clean decision over Rob Font that proved he can win each chaos and minutes at UFC level. Stylistically, his high-paced, combination-heavy offense and willingness to guide fit well against Vera’s historically low-volume, slow-starting approach.
If Martinez gets off first, chopping on the legs and body while forcing Vera backward, he can bank early rounds before Vera’s trademark late surge ever arrives. Martinez also brings the boldness and sturdiness of somebody who has never been finished, with solid defensive awareness and enough wrestling to maintain this largely in his preferred striking realm.
Unless Vera can seriously hurt him with a single counter or lock up something sneaky in a scramble, the likeliest consequence is Martinez out-working him within the pocket, landing the cleaner volume, and walking away from Mexico City with a press release decision over a fading former title challenger.
Final Chito Vera-David Martinez Prediction & Pick
Martinez is 13-1 on a nine-fight heater, with a pressure-heavy, combination striking game and enough wrestling to maintain fights where he wants them, which is bad news for a slow-starter like Vera. Vera’s durability and late-fight danger are proven, but he’s 1-4 in his last five and has increasingly struggled to tug the trigger, often freely giving early rounds on low output.
Against someone who throws in volume, targets legs and body, and doesn’t mind sitting within the pocket, those slow starts can quickly develop into a three-round hole. Martinez has already shown over three UFC bouts that he can each blitz opponents for finishes and bank workmanlike decisions when the kill shot doesn’t come.
Unless Vera can seriously wobble him with a single counter or spring a late submission, the most definitely consequence at altitude is Martinez out-working him within the pocket, winning minutes with volume and pressure, and taking a transparent decision that further cements his surge up the bantamweight rankings.
Final Chito Vera-David Martinez Prediction & Pick: David Martinez (-325), Over 2.5 Rounds (-425)