Because the world reels from what Trump has called ‘major combat operations’ by the US military in Iran, we’re faced with more questions than answers.
What sort of nuclear weapons do enemies Iran and Israel possess — and what number of? Could the conflict trigger a wider regional conflict – and even World War III?
Because the sound of bombing raids rings out once more within the Middle East, understanding what’s at stake is more vital than ever.
That is all the pieces we find out about Iran and Israel’s nuclear arsenals.
Does Iran have nuclear weapons?
Each US intelligence and the UN’s nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), have said that Iran closed down its nuclear weapons development programme in 2003.
But in response to the IAEA, Tehran has in recent times continued enriching uranium, including to close weapons-grade.
All three of the plants where that was happening were hit within the last US strikes on Iran last June.
Nevertheless, while Trump gloated that the strikes had obliterated Tehran’s nuclear facilities, IEA director general Rafael Grossi warned Iran could resume enrichment on a more limited scale inside months.
Iran has not allowed the UN to examine either of the damaged facilities at Fordow, Natanz and Esfahan since last summer’s ’12-day war’.
Just this week an IAEA report stressed it ‘cannot confirm whether Iran has suspended all enrichment-related activities’, or the ‘size of Iran’s uranium stockpile on the affected nuclear facilities’.
The report stressed that the ‘lack of continuity of information … must be addressed with the utmost urgency’.
Iran now enriches uranium to close weapons-grade levels of 60%, the one country on the earth with no nuclear weapons programme to accomplish that.
Under a 2015 nuclear deal, Iran was allowed to counterpoint uranium as much as 3.67% purity and to take care of a uranium stockpile of 300kg.
For the reason that start of his second term within the Oval Office, Trump has been working to achieve an agreement on curbing Iran’s programme.
There had been several rounds of talks between the US and Iran until the Israeli attacks, and Trump had imposed latest sanctions on Iran as a part of his ‘maximum pressure’ campaign.
How far is Iran from a nuclear bomb?
A nuclear bomb isn’t something you may construct overnight. It requires something called uranium enrichment.
Uranium accommodates a radioactive isotope called U-235, that may be used as an influence source. The more refined it’s – in other words, enriched – the more powerful. Power is increased by spinning U-235 in a container often called a centrifuge.
Nuclear power plants only need relatively unenriched uranium at 0.7% to five%, while weapons-grade nuclear weapons require 90%.
The IAEA says Iran has about 400kg price of uranium enriched to 60%. At 90% enrichment, that is enough for 10 warheads.
Iran Watch warns that the country could enrich enough uranium for one weapon in 4 months, and five weapons in a single yr and eight months.
Nevertheless, it’s price noting that Iran would also need to construct a warhead and a missile able to delivering it.
What missiles does Iran have?
Iran has the largest stockpile of ballistic missiles within the Middle East, in response to the US Office of the Director of National Intelligence.
Their range of 1,240 miles is enough for self-defence, Iranian officials have said, because they will reach Israel.
A lot of Iran’s missile sites are in and around Tehran.
There are not less than five known underground ‘missile cities’ in various provinces, including Kermanshah and Semnan, in addition to near the Gulf region.
Tehran’s missile arsenal is assumed to incorporate the Sejil, Ghadr and Khorramshahr, all with a spread of 1,240 miles, in addition to the Emad (1,050 miles), Shahab-3 and Hoveyzeh (830 miles).
Does Israel have nuclear weapons?
Israel’s military superiority within the Middle East comes not only through its conventional arsenal or the backing of the US, but from its nuclear arsenal.
Israel is widely believed to have one of the vital advanced nuclear programmes on the earth, however it has never confirmed or denied its existence.
Since it has never signed to the non-proliferation treaty, Israel just isn’t subject to independent IAEA inspections of its nuclear facilities.
For the reason that Nineteen Sixties, successive governments have followed a policy of nuclear ambiguity. Within the early days, Israel went to great lengths to cover its nuclear ambitions from the international community, even its closest allies.
Even US inspectors were misled during early visits to the Nuclear Research Center near Dimona, within the Negev desert, which was initially described as a textile factory.
Today, estimates of its stockpile range between 90 and 400 warheads, all of which could possibly be delivered by air, as cruise missiles fired from submarines and thru the Jericho line of ballistic missiles.
A number of days before Israel’s attack on Iran, during which dozens of individuals – most of them civilians – were killed, Iran had threatened to release a hoard of Israeli nuclear secrets it claims to have obtained.
Iran’s intelligence minister, Esmail Khatib, claimed the regime had obtained ‘an enormous collection of strategic and sensitive documents, including plans and data on the nuclear facilities’.
Why has the US attacked Iran?
In his statement last night, President Trump said the target of his ‘major combat operations’ was to ‘defend the American people by eliminating imminent threats from the Iranian regime’.
He said: ‘Its menacing activities directly endanger america, our troops our basis overseas and our allies throughout the world.
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‘For 47 years, the Iranian regime has chanted “Death to America” and waged an unending campaign of bloodshed and mass murder, targeting america, our troops and innocent people in lots of, many countries.’
Trump added: ‘Iran is the world’s primary state sponsor of terror, and only recently killed tens of hundreds of its own residents on the road as they protested.
‘It has all the time been the policy of america, specifically, my administration, that this terrorist regime can never have a nuclear weapon.
‘I’ll say it again. They’ll never have a nuclear weapon.’
Could the Israel-Iran conflict result in World War III?
Even after the involvement of the US, it’s unlikely that it would lead to a world conflict.
Speaking after the last strikes on Iran, Jason Pack, fellow at Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) and host of the Disorder Podcast, told Metro that the regime has been ‘really weakened’.
He said: ‘The Iranians don’t have the potential to bring us to World War III.
‘It’s far more more likely to see the Iranian people stand up against the regime than we’re to see the Iranians like land some decisive blow against Israel.’
Get in contact with our news team by emailing us at webnews@metro.co.uk.
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