When Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in certainly one of the primary missile strikes launched by the US and Israel of their war on Iran, he was 86 years old and ill.
So it’s likely top officials within the country already had plans in place in case of his demise – even in the event that they probably didn’t predict how it could occur.
But as chaos continues to blow up across the region, it’s unclear whether those plans remain intact or if – like Khamenei’s palace in Tehran – they’ve been reduced to rubble.
Even when different ruling factions had already managed to agree on a single candidate, ‘it’s very possible that the catastrophic situation Iran now finds itself in might force a rethink’, in accordance with Dr Christian Emery, an associate professor in international politics at University College London.
He told Metro: ‘Several of the important thing power brokers who were steering the method towards one preferred candidate, and really possibly even Khamenei’s chosen successor, may now well be dead.’
Nevertheless, there’s now an influence vacuum at the highest of Iranian politics that the regime will likely be eager to fill.
And the person they select could find yourself dictating whether this war involves a swift conclusion, or escalates further into unthinkable bloodshed. Here’s how.
How is Iran’s recent Supreme Leader chosen?
Within the 47 years for the reason that Iranian Revolution of 1979, there have only been two Supreme Leaders of Iran.
The primary was Ruhollah Khomeini, who ruled for nine-and-a-half years until 1989. Ali Khamenei was the second.
(As a sidenote, the title of Ayatollah doesn’t mechanically include the role. It simply means a high-ranking Shiite leader – Khomeini already was one when he became Supreme Leader, while Khamenei was given the title afterwards to assist shore up his legitimacy.)
The Iranian Structure sets out the method for choosing the brand new one.
It’s all right down to the Assembly of Experts, a body elected by the Iranian public every eight years which is made up of 88 clerics.
Throughout the Assembly, there’s a smaller committee that picks out a listing of acceptable candidates to whittle down the alternative for the remainder of the members.
‘It’s almost certain that this was done long before the present war,’ Professor Emery said.
Now Khamenei is dead, the structure dictates the Assembly must elect a successor by majority vote ‘as soon as possible’ – something that might often be made easy by all of the groundwork.
Professor Emery explained: ‘Khamenei’s own elevation was so rigorously choreographed that it took the Assembly of Experts only 24 hours to elect him.’
Nonetheless, he added that it’s ‘very unclear how the Assembly of Experts can formally convene’ when such a gathering would supply Israel and the US with a golden opportunity to wipe out more of Iran’s leadership.
Who’re the highest contenders to develop into Supreme Leader of Iran?
These are the almost definitely candidates for the brand new Supreme Leader of Iran in accordance with Professor Emery – and what impact he believes they might have.
Supreme Court Chief Justice Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje’i
‘Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje’i is currently certainly one of the three leaders standing in because the country’s interim governing council.
‘An extreme hardliner, he’s notorious for being the important thing judicial figure chargeable for the mass executions and brutal crackdown on protesters throughout the January anti-government protests.
‘As such, his appointment as Supreme Leader would potentially incite more public rage.’
Hassan Khomeini
‘The grandson of the founding father of the Islamic Republic and its first Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini.
‘Hassan Khomeini could also be as near a stabilising option because the regime can get.
‘He has the Khomeini family name and links to each reformist and conservative factions and is reportedly also respected by the powerful Revolutionary Guards.
‘He’s seen as somewhat of a moderate, although that continues to be a really relative term amongst all of the potential candidates given their loyalty to such a brutal and corrupt system.’
Mojtaba Khamenei
‘Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s second-eldest son.
‘He’s reportedly extremely influential inside Iran but working against him is each his lack of presidency experience and the political and clerical establishment’s fear that returning to hereditary rule would undermine the Iranian Revolution’s founding principle of no more Shahs.’
Ayatollah Alireza Arafi
‘A member of the Guardian Council since 2019 and of the Assembly of Experts since 2022.
‘He has the clerical standing and his influence was seen when he was appointed to the country’s interim governing council.
‘He would likely be seen as a protected pair of hands who would largely proceed Khamenei’s agenda and never challenge the facility of the Revolutionary Guard.’
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