ClutchPoints shouldn’t be affiliated with, endorsed by, or in any way connected to any sportsbook. Gambling shouldn’t be offered on this website in any form.
The Predominant Event of UFC London is finally here as we bring you a betting prediction and pick for this headlining bout between ranked Featherweight (145) contenders. No. 1 Movsar Evloev of Russia will tackle England’s own No. 3 Lerone Murphy to find out a possible title challenger. Check our UFC odds series for the Evloev-Murphy prediction and pick.
Movsar Evloev (19-0) is an ideal 9-0 contained in the UFC since arriving in 2019. He’s won his last three fights via unanimous decision over the likes of Diego Lopes, Arnold Allen, and Aljamain Sterling, all in dominant fashion, hoping to earn his first title shot with one other win. Evloev stands 5-foot-7 with a 72.5-inch reach.
Lerone Murphy (17-0-1) can be an ideal 9-0-1 during his UFC tenure since 2019. His recent wins include consecutive unanimous wins over Dan Ige and Josh Emmett, together with a recent KO win over hyped prospect Aaron Pico. He’ll search for a title shot of his own in his home country. Murphy stands 5-foot-9 with a 73.5-inch reach.
UFC London Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC London Odds: Movsar Evloev-Lerone Murphy Odds
Movsar Evloev: -250
Lerone Murphy: +205
Over 4.5 rounds: -345
Under 4.5 rounds: +250
Why Movsar Evloev Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Aljamain Sterling – U DEC
- Last 5: 5-0
- Finishes: 3 KO/TKO, 4 SUB
Movsar Evloev emerged victorious once more in his last bout against former champ Aljamain Sterling, landing 4 of 5 takedowns to sway the judges in giving him the unanimous nod. Nonetheless, his striking numbers were most impressive as he outpaced Sterling 136-145 total strikes on the feet. This comes off the same performance against Arnold Allen, where he displayed his full skill set, and Evloev appears to be within the prime of his profession and prepared for a title shot.
Movsar Evloev is accurate on 48% of his takedown attempts, but he’s landing a blistering 4.67 average takedowns per quarter-hour. Not only is he putting opponents on the bottom, but he’s capable of chain takedowns together and keep opponents guessing together with his work on the feet. He does an amazing job of attacking the top with boxing and perfectly timing double or single-leg takedowns along the fence.
Evloev’s opponent also sports a questionable 51% takedown defense, and while Murphy has never been submitted before, Evloev should find a way to threaten with the thought of submissions from the highest. If Murphy chooses to face and strike with him, Evloev has already proven that he’s greater than comfortable doing so and is deceptively fast together with his boxing mixtures.
Why Lerone Murphy Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Aaron Pico – KO (spinning elbow, R1)
- Last 5: 5-0
- Finishes: 8 KO/TKO
Lerone Murphy put together a stellar performance at UFC 319 in silencing the hype behind Aaron Pico’s debut. Touted as a world-class wrestler, Murphy made quick work of Pico on the feet and ultimately landed an ideal spinning elbow to knock his opponent out cold. The win needed to have been an enormous confidence boost for Murphy after feeling disrespected for being dealt a debut fighter – now he has his opportunity to take the No. 1 rating and earn a title shot.
Lerone Murphy is solid all over the place the fight takes place and hasn’t really shown any noticeable weaknesses in his game up up to now. He’ll be working behind a slight size advantage and is probably going the faster man on his feet when it comes to his striking. Typically very energetic together with his leg kicks, he may bypass a few of those against Evloev, risking it getting caught and brought down.
Still, Murphy could be very defensive in his own right and won’t allow Evloev too many clean shots on the feet without returning something of his own. On the bottom, he’s very sound defensively and is more likely to be defending several submissions throughout the fight if he finds himself there. The most important focus for Murphy in those situations will likely be attending to his feet quickly and forcing Evloev to beat him on the feet.
Final Movsar Evloev-Lerone Murphy Prediction & Pick
That is one other great headlining fight because the O2 Arena should erupt in support of Lerone Murphy during this Predominant Event. Each fighters are 9-0 within the division and rightfully deserve a title shot with a win here. We give Evloev the sting on the bottom while giving Murphy the sting on the feet.
While Lerone Murphy is more likely to put solid striking mixtures together early, it’s only a matter of time before Evloev will begin chain wrestling and landing takedowns on Murphy’s questionable defense. He’s done this to higher fighters up to now, and I do not expect Murphy to catch him clean on the chin to finish this fight within the meantime.
For our final prediction, let’s roll with Movsar Evloev to win one other five-round decision as he’ll struggle to place Murphy away, but will dominate on the scorecards together with his wrestling.
Final Movsar Evloev-Lerone Murphy Prediction & Pick: Movsar Evloev (-250); OVER 4.5 Rounds (-345)