U.S. President Donald Trump is widening the cracks between the USA and European NATO members along with his calls for allies to assist him finish the war he began with Iran.
Many NATO member countries were already grappling with the long run of the alliance after a key member — the USA — threatened to take over Greenland, an ally’s territory.
Canada has a distinct problem: alliances may change, but geography is everlasting.
“Geographically, regardless of what government there’s in the USA or what government that’s in Canada, there are some immutable geographic aspects,” said Aurel Braun, a professor of diplomacy and political science on the University of Toronto.
Twelve countries, including Canada, signed the North Atlantic Treaty in 1949 in Washington, D.C., in an effort to offer collective security against the Soviet Union. NATO has since grown to 32 member nations and is the longest-enduring defence pact in history.
Article 5 of the treaty, which states that an attack on any member will likely be met by a response from all of them, has only ever been invoked once — by the USA, after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks.
Despite that, Trump has repeatedly claimed he’s not convinced NATO members could be there for the USA if it needed help again, and has denigrated the service of allied soldiers who’ve fought — and died — alongside Americans.
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In multiple posts on social media, Trump has suggested the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran is a test of NATO’s commitment.
“The USA has been informed by most of our NATO ‘Allies’ that they don’t need to get entangled with our Military Operation against the Terrorist Regime of Iran, within the Middle East, this, despite the undeniable fact that almost every Country strongly agreed with what we’re doing, and that Iran cannot, in any way, shape, or form, be allowed to have a Nuclear Weapon,” Trump said on social media Tuesday.
“We’ll protect them, but they may do nothing for us, specifically, in a time of need.”
On Thursday, Canada joined the UK, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Japan in issuing a joint statement on Iran’s blockage of the Strait of Hormuz. In it, the countries expressed their “readiness to contribute to appropriate efforts to make sure secure passage through the Strait.”
Braun said the issue with Trump is he’s “bombastic, is narcissistic, he’s vindictive” and “he has demeaned, disparaged and mischaracterized the alliance.”
Trump’s provocations can elicit responses from NATO partners which are driven by anger or a way of betrayal, making it difficult for them to deal with real issues, Braun added.
After the beginning of the airstrikes on Iran, Braun said, many European leaders echoed Trump’s own repeated attacks on aid for Ukraine by stating the president’s war is just not Europe’s war.
Trump’s insulting tone, and the response from other countries, make it difficult for NATO members to see the international picture clearly and set strategy, Braun said.
Checked out a technique, the USA’ future in NATO must be on a surer footing now, said Erwan Lagadec, an associate research professor at George Washington University’s Elliott School of International Affairs.
In recent times, Congress has passed laws that prohibits the manager branch from unilaterally reducing troop numbers in Europe below a certain level, and maintains the U.S. role in NATO command. U.S. Ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker assured the alliance in February the USA was still committed to Article 5.
“So in principle we should always … be clearer about NATO, the U.S. commitment to NATO under this administration, than we were even six months ago,” Lagadec said.
“But all bets are off with Trump, who now seems to place the U.S.’s commitment to NATO unsure again.”
Canadians know from experience that congressional guardrails don’t stop Trump from acting on his impulses. The Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement on trade was negotiated through the first Trump administration and passed through Congress.
Many experts say Trump’s wide-ranging and erratic tariff agenda undermines his own trade pact with America’s closest neighbours.
The president also has repeatedly threatened Canada’s sovereignty and has called each the present prime minister and the previous one “governor.”
While Europe is working to spice up its military capability in response to the instability generated by the Trump administration, not all countries are necessarily in search of a clean break from the USA, Lagadec noted.
Canada can be boosting its military spending, partly in response to the Trump administration’s threats. But Lagadec and Braun each agree that — given the length of the Canada-U.S. border, the vast shared landscape and the population difference between the 2 countries — it’s not realistic to think Canada can decouple its defence from the USA.
“The USA would still be a superpower,” Braun said. “Geography won’t change in Canada.”
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