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It is time for an additional betting prediction and pick for UFC London: Evloev vs. Murphy because the Primary Card continues with a ranked bout within the Middleweight (185) Division. No. 11 Roman Dolidze of Georgia will tackle England’s own Christian Leroy Duncan in a high-level matchup. Check our UFC odds series for the Dolidze-Duncan prediction and pick.
Roman Dolidze (15-4) is 9-4 contained in the UFC since since 2020, most recently falling to Anthony Hernandez via submission last trip. The loss snapped a four-fight winning streak as he looks to retain his rating as the numerous underdog. Dolidze stands 6-foot-2 with a 76-inch reach.
Christian Leroy Duncan (13-2) has gone 6-2 within the UFC since 2023. He’s won three-straight fights leading into this one, including back-to-back ‘Performance of the Night’ bonuses with knockouts over his last two opponents. Standing 6-foot-2 with a 79-inch reach, Duncan is available in the betting favorite on home soil.
UFC London Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC London Odds: Roman Dolidze-Christian Leroy Duncan Odds
Roman Dolidze: +340
Christian Leroy Duncan: -440
Over 2.5 rounds: -130
Under 2.5 rounds: +100
Why Roman Dolidze Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) Anthony Hernandez – SUB (rear naked choke, R4)
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 8 KO/TKO, 3 SUB
Roman Dolidze fought a tough bout against Anthony Hernandez in his third headlining fight, falling victim to Hernandez’s strong ground game late within the fight. Dolidze is not one to drag punches early within the fight, oftentimes expending his arsenal and full gas tank within the opening rounds. This three-round environment might be higher suited to his type of fighting in the intervening time, needing a win to retain his top-15 rating.
Dolidze leads with tremendous confidence in his chin as he’s never been knocked out, suffering his first and only loss inside the gap during his last bout. He must concentrate on the present knockout run Duncan is on, so expect Dolidze to be very defensive throughout this bout. He’s known for exploding into his offense and catching opponents in the method, in order that game plan may gain advantage him against a slight reach drawback.
Dolidze has shown small gaps in his defensive grappling, but he isn’t prone to need much of it against a kickboxer like Duncan. Dolidze’s best strength can be landing the harder shots throughout the exchanges while mixing within the low leg kicks. If he can hinder the lateral mobility of his opponent, Dolidze can be especially dangerous throwing his strikes down the center.
Why Christian Leroy Duncan Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Marco Tulio – KO (spinning backfist, R2)
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 10 KO/TKO, 1 SUB
Christian Leroy Duncan is on a tear immediately, landing consecutive spinning backfists in his last two bouts to finish each fights before the third round. He finished each fights with follow-up strikes and earned performance bonuses, coming into this bout hoping to return out with a win and a rating next to his name. Duncan has been certainly one of the more exciting middleweights to look at over the past yr and this spot in front of his home country fans might be the breakthrough he’s been waiting for.
Duncan may be very measured along with his striking approach and lands punches at a powerful 58% accuracy rate. He also defends 51% of strikes coming back his way, so he’s definitely built for a three-round war of attrition where he can out-pace an opponent on the feet.
Duncan can be very patient and doesn’t give many tells as to what he’ll throw and where it’s coming from. His last two knockouts where each unexpected during two somewhat tame exchanges, so he’s always looking for the openings with a knockout strike loaded and prepared.
Duncan will find most success in countering the forward pressure of Dolidze and allowing his opponent to overextend within the exchanges. Look ahead to Duncan’s ability on the back foot as he’s all of the more dangerous when he’s slipping punches and allowing opponents to whiff big and leave themselves open.
Final Roman Dolidze-Christian Leroy Duncan Prediction & Pick
This ought to be one other exciting bout between two dangerous finishers as Christian Leroy Duncan heads into this fight with all of the momentum. Roman Dolidze has shown his ability throughout the recent run, but he struggled his last trip against Anthony Hernandez in his first profession loss inside the gap.
Christian Leroy Duncan has managed to seek out unlikely knockouts during his recent run and I expect this fight to finish in similar fashion. Behind his 69% takedown defense, he ought to be dictating where this fight takes place and gauging the striking distance through all three rounds.
For our final prediction, we’ll side with Christian Leroy Duncan to win in front of his home crowd. We’ll also play it secure and side with the entire over, but don’t in any respect be surprised if Duncan manages to finish this fight early with a knockout.
Final Roman Dolidze-Christian Leroy Duncan Prediction & Pick: Christian Leroy Duncan (-440); OVER 2.5 Rounds (-130)