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UFC London: Movsar Evloev vs. Lerone Murphy continues on the prelims with a fight between Shem Rock and Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady within the lightweight division on Saturday. Take a look at our UFC odds series for our Rock-Al-Selwady prediction and pick.
Shem Rock (12-2-1) looks to bounce back after a tricky decision loss to Nurullo Aliev in his November UFC debut. Previously, the submission ace outpointed Attila Korkmaz to conclude a stellar Oktagon tenure. Rock’s elite grappling can be key as he comes into his fight this weekend against Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady.
Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady (15-4) looks to rebound following a third-round KO loss to Loik Radzhabov in his promotional debut. Before that, he secured a dominant decision over George Hardwick on DWCS to earn his contract. The Fortis MMA product needs a win as he comes into his fight this weekend against Shem Rock.
UFC London Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC London Odds: Shem Rock-Daniel Cormier Odds
Shem Rock: +105
Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady: -125
Over 2.5 rounds: -166
Under 2.5 rounds: +130
Why Shem Rock Will Win
Shem Rock enters this lightweight clash with a big three-inch height advantage and a vital four-inch reach edge. These physical dimensions allow him to manage the range and stop Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady from establishing his preferred boxing rhythm.
With nine of his twelve skilled wins coming via submission, Rock possesses an elite ground game that poses a relentless threat. If the fight hits the mat, Al-Selwady’s historically low takedown defense may lead him directly right into a fight-ending choke or limb entanglement.
Rock’s southpaw stance also presents a difficult puzzle, as his heavy body kicks are designed to sap an opponent’s cardiovascular endurance. By targeting the midsection early, he can effectively lower Al-Selwady’s guard and arrange a signature “club and sub” finish.
While Al-Selwady is a robust striker, he’s getting back from a devastating knockout loss which will have compromised his defensive confidence. Rock’s durability was proven in his gritty performance against Nurullo Aliev, suggesting he can weather any early storms to search out his own opening.
The local support at London’s O2 Arena will further elevate Rock’s intensity, pushing him to keep up a relentless pace throughout the competition. Expect Rock to utilize his length and superior grappling IQ to secure a dominant victory as he comes into his fight this weekend against Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady.
Why Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady Will Win
Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady possesses a relentless striking pace, averaging 4.14 significant strikes per minute in comparison with Rock’s much lower offensive output. His Muay Thai foundation allows him to cut down taller opponents with devastating low kicks and highly technical combos.
Shem Rock has shown a dangerous tendency to maintain his lead hand low, a defensive liability that was heavily exploited in his last outing. Al-Selwady’s superior hand speed and crisp boxing are perfectly suited to capitalize on these specific openings throughout the striking exchanges.
Moreover, Rock is usually cited for having a cardio ceiling, along with his explosiveness and efficiency dropping significantly after the primary round. Al-Selwady trains at Fortis MMA, a camp known for producing high-volume grinders who can maintain a blistering pace for fifteen minutes.
While Rock is undoubtedly a dangerous submission specialist, Al-Selwady’s energetic wrestling and takedown average of two.32 per fight show he can dictate the situation. He has the physical strength and defensive wrestling to disclaim Rock’s entries and force a stand-up battle where he thrives.
Al-Selwady’s veteran experience against tough competition like George Hardwick has prepared him for the various threats that a fighter like Rock presents. His relentless forward pressure and technical striking will likely be the deciding aspects as he comes into his fight this weekend against Shem Rock.
Final Shem Rock-Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady Prediction & Pick
The lightweight clash between Shem Rock and Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady at UFC London presents an interesting stylistic puzzle between a submission specialist and a high-volume grinder. Each fighters need to rebound from debut losses, making the stakes incredibly high as they fight to secure their first Octagon victory.
Shem Rock holds a big physical advantage, boasting a three-inch height lead and a four-inch reach edge over his opponent. He’ll likely look to make use of this length to maintain Al-Selwady at bay with a southpaw jab and heavy body kicks.
Nevertheless, Al-Selwady is understood for his relentless forward pressure and a striking output that just about doubles Rock’s average volume. If he can bridge the gap and switch this right into a pocket-boxing affair, his superior hand speed could create serious defensive problems for the Liverpudlian.
The grappling exchanges will likely determine the winner, given Al-Selwady’s historically low 20% takedown defense. Rock is a dangerous submission hunter with nine profession wins by tap-out, and he only needs one mistake on the mat to finish the night.
While Al-Selwady has the wrestling pedigree to initiate his own takedowns, doing so puts him directly into the “python trap” of Rock’s elite guard. The hometown crowd on the O2 Arena should provide an additional boost for Rock to survive the early flurries.
Expect a competitive first round followed by Rock finding a transition to the back as Al-Selwady tires from the clinch work. The ultimate prediction is a second-round rear-naked choke victory for Rock as he comes into his fight this weekend against Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady.
Final Shem Rock-Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady Prediction & Pick: Shem Rock (+105), Under 2.5 Rounds (+130)