Terrance McKinney vs. Kyle Nelson prediction, odds, pick for UFC Seattle

The UFC Seattle: Adesanya vs. Tybura Essential Card is finally here, opening its motion with this bout within the Lightweight (155) Division. Washington’s own Terrance McKinney will return home against Canada’s Kyle Nelson in a fight that ought to bring all of the fireworks to open the Essential Card. Check our UFC odds series for the McKinney-Nelson prediction and pick.

Terrance McKinney (17-8) has gone 7-5 since joining the UFC roster in 2021. He dropped his last bout against Chris Duncan at UFC 323, but he’s primed to bounce back from the loss even stronger because the slight betting favorite back home in Washington. McKinney stands 5-foot-10 with a 73.5-inch reach.

Kyle Nelson (17-6-1) has gone 5-5-1 contained in the UFC since 2018. After losing a three-fight winning streak to Steve Garcia, he responded with a unanimous decision over Matt Frevola his last outing and hopes to come back out on top because the underdog once more. Nelson stands 5-foot-11 with a 71-inch reach.

UFC Seattle Odds, courtesy of DraftKings. 

UFC Seattle Odds: Terrance McKinney-Kyle Nelson Odds

Terrance McKinney: -170

Kyle Nelson: +142

Over 1.5 rounds: +200

Under 1.5 rounds: -270

Why Terrance McKinney Will Win

• Last Fight: (L) Chris Duncan – SUB (anaconda choke, R1)
• Last 5: 3-2
• Finishes: 8 KO/TKO, 9 SUB

Following back-to-back fights against Damir Hadzovic and Viacheslav Borshchev where he managed finishes in the primary round, Terrance McKinney faced his own first-round defeat against Chris Duncan via submission his last outing. The loss was unexpected for McKinney, but Duncan was clearly tougher than he gave him credit for. Together with his last six consecutive fights ending contained in the first round and all 12 of his bouts ending inside two rounds, we are able to ensure McKinney will come out on the lookout for an identical lead to this one.

McKinney wastes no time in taking the middle of the octagon and immediately exchanges heated mixtures against his opponent. While it’s gotten him caught prior to now, McKinney is frequently capable of parlay the striking chaos into taking dominant position on the bottom. He’s very dangerous with locking in quick submissions, so expect McKinney to always be working for the choke as soon as he hits the bottom.

Against a gradual opponent and 53% striking defense coming from Kyle Nelson, McKinney will definitely have to select his shots fastidiously and avoid any big counters from his opponent. McKinney’s chin is frequently capable of delay through the opening round, but there is no doubt he’s put himself in danger in the method and will see his durability suffer if he continues to fight for first-round knockouts.

Why Kyle Nelson Will Win

• Last Fight: (W) Matt Frevola – U DEC
• Last 5: 4-1
• Finishes: 6 KO/TKO, 4 SUB

Kyle Nelson put together an entire performance in neutralizing a dangerous opponent in Matt Frevola, leading the striking total 92-60 and utilizing two takedowns within the third round to solidify the unanimous win on the scorecards. Nelson is about as regular and balanced as fighters come, completely willing to take the fight anywhere and frequently be the more dominant side behind his fundamental techniques. He’ll be willing to match McKinney’s energy throughout the primary round and we should not be surprised if he can land the early knockout himself.

Kyle Nelson’s loss to Steve Garcia actually wasn’t a foul one given the early stoppage and Nelson getting caught by a flush elbow. Outside of that, Nelson has been dominant through three rounds against dangerous knockout artists like Blake Bilder, Bill Algeo, and Matt Frevola. If he’s capable of weather the early storm in the primary round, expect Nelson to be the more convincing side within the second and third rounds.

Nelson has been one to initiate the grappling and with just one submission loss on his record, he’s typically very sound in defending from any attempts within the jiu jitsu. Nevertheless, he will probably want to avoid prolonged exchanges on the mat against an opportunist like McKinney and giving himself a probability to win this fight on the feet early.

Final Terrance McKinney-Kyle Nelson Prediction & Pick

This fight is sort of guaranteed to finish inside the gap as Terrance McKinney has yet to see a 3rd round in all 12 of his UFC fights. He’s dished and brought some damage in the method and won’t have the option to overlook a powerful opponent like Kyle Nelson on this one. Nelson is amazingly well-rounded and can feel comfortable wherever this fight takes place and whatever style McKinney presents him with.

I expect Terrance McKinney to come back out on this fight together with his usual aggression and pushing the pace early. It’ll be interesting to see how Nelson handles the early barrage, but his track record against similar-styled opponents indicates he should have the option to take this fight into deeper waters.

For our final prediction, we will roll with Kyle Nelson to win this fight because the underdog, pushing McKinney to the later rounds and ultimately winning on the back of his cardio and consistent pace. We could see McKinney gas out in some unspecified time in the future and if he’s unable to land the knockout in the primary round, this fight becomes all of the more interesting the longer it lasts.

Final Terrance McKinney-Kyle Nelson Prediction & Pick: Kyle Nelson (+142); OVER 1.5 rounds (+200)