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UFC Seattle: Israel Adesanya vs. Joe Pyfer continues on the prelims with a fight between Chase Hooper and Lance Gibson Jr. within the lightweight division on Saturday. Take a look at our UFC odds series for our Hooper-Gibson Jr. prediction and pick.
Chase Hooper (16-4-1) was riding the perfect stretch of his UFC profession, submitting Clay Guida via armbar at UFC 310 in December 2024 and grinding out a unanimous decision over Jim Miller at UFC 314 in April 2025. Nonetheless, that momentum got here to a screeching halt when Alexander Hernandez TKO’d him in the primary round at UFC 319 in August 2025, as he comes into his fight this weekend against Lance Gibson.
Lance Gibson Jr. (9-2) made a powerful impression coming into his UFC debut, earning two tune-up wins outside the Octagon before signing with the promotion. Nonetheless, his first official UFC outing was a troublesome one, dropping a split decision to Bobby Green at UFC Fight Night in December 2025, as he comes into his fight this weekend against Chase Hooper.
UFC Seattle Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Seattle Odds: Jon Jones-Lance Gibson Jr. Odds
Chase Hooper: -278
Lance Gibson Jr.: +225
Over 1.5 rounds: -195
Under 1.5 rounds: +150
Why Chase Hooper Will Win
Chase Hooper is certainly one of the slipperiest submission artists within the UFC lightweight division, and his grappling creativity gives him a ending threat that a comparatively inexperienced UFC fighter like Gibson is solely not prepared for. At 16-4-1, Hooper has faced and submitted elite-level competition throughout his profession.
Gibson’s split decision loss to Bobby Green in his UFC debut revealed that he will be outpointed by a crafty, experienced opponent — and Hooper is precisely that form of fighter. Hooper’s ability to tug fights into deep grappling exchanges is a nightmare matchup for somebody still finding their footing within the Octagon.
Hooper also brings a big experience edge, having competed in among the biggest fights the lightweight division has to supply. That comfort under the brilliant lights of a UFC event is something Gibson has yet to totally develop.
Hooper’s length and unorthodox movement on the feet also make him a difficult puzzle to unravel for opponents still learning how you can navigate elite-level competition. Gibson has shown he will be outworked over three rounds, and Hooper has the cardio and submission savvy to do exactly that.
Hooper’s grappling IQ and UFC experience make him the clear favorite here. Expect him to seek out a submission finish somewhere within the second or third round and snap his losing streak emphatically in Seattle.
Why Lance Gibson Jr. Will Win
Lance Gibson Jr. enters this fight as a hungry, unproven commodity who has every little thing to realize and nothing to lose on Saturday night in Seattle. That sort of desperation and chip-on-the-shoulder mentality will be one of the crucial dangerous things to face in a cage fight.
Hooper is coming off a brutal first-round TKO loss to Alexander Hernandez, and questions on his durability and chin are very much back on the table. Gibson is a physically imposing lightweight who can exploit those concerns with aggressive forward pressure from the opening bell.
Gibson’s split decision loss to Bobby Green was competitive and proved he can hang with experienced UFC-level fighters for 3 full rounds. If he can keep the fight standing and avoid getting tied up in Hooper’s submission web, his athleticism and physicality give him a transparent path to victory.
Hooper’s grappling is elite, but fighters who comprehend it is coming can defend it — and Gibson’s team could have had months to organize specifically for those takedown and submission attempts. A well-prepared game plan built around takedown defense could completely neutralize Hooper’s biggest weapon.
Gibson is the sort of raw, explosive fighter who thrives as an underdog. His youth, athleticism, and hunger may very well be the deciding aspects as he looks to earn his first UFC win in dramatic fashion Saturday night in Seattle.
Final Chase Hooper-Lance Gibson Jr. Prediction & Pick
This lightweight matchup is a classic experience vs. youth battle, with Hooper’s veteran savvy and submission skills going up against Gibson’s raw athleticism and point-to-prove mentality. The early rounds will set the tone — if Gibson can keep the fight standing and avoid Hooper’s grappling, this becomes a way more competitive contest.
Expect Hooper to search for takedowns early and infrequently, using his patented unorthodox style to maintain Gibson uncomfortable and off-balance. Gibson will counter by working behind his jab and looking out to land power shots that may discourage Hooper’s forward pressure.
Hooper’s experience and submission creativity should begin to take over, especially if he has already established his grappling within the opening frame. Gibson’s UFC inexperience could show itself when the fight gets into deep, grinding exchanges that Hooper has navigated persistently before.
Hooper’s losses have come against elite competition, and bouncing back against a UFC newcomer looks like a really realistic final result here. His submission game alone makes him dangerous in each round of this fight.
His grappling IQ and ending ability prove to be an excessive amount of for a Gibson who continues to be learning the ropes at UFC level on a troublesome night in Seattle as he get submitted before the ultimate horn.
Final Chase Hooper-Lance Gibson Jr. Prediction & Pick: Chase Hooper (-278), Over 1.5 Rounds (-195)
UFC Seattle: Israel Adesanya vs. Joe Pyfer continues on the prelims with a fight between Chase Hooper and Lance Gibson Jr. within the lightweight division on Saturday. Take a look at our UFC odds series for our Hooper-Gibson Jr. prediction and pick.