After serving 16 years as Prime Minister, Hungarian voters ousted Viktor Orban on Sunday, rejecting authoritarian policies and a right-wing movement that Orban spearheaded.
Election victor Peter Magyar, a former loyalist of Mr Orban who campaigned against corruption and on on a regular basis issues akin to health care and public transport, has pledged to rebuild Hungary’s relationships with the European Union and NATO – ties that frayed under Mr Orban.
President Trump’s ‘MAGA’ politicians have long supported Orban’s government, seeing it for instance of conservative, anti-globalist politics in motion. But even US vice-president JD Vance’s intervention within the campaign, by which he endorsed Orban during a visit to Budapest earlier this month, couldn’t win over the votes Orban needed.
Dr Sherrill Stroschein, Lecturer in Politics within the Department of Political Science on the University College London, told Metro that Orban’s loss is a significant win for European politics.
‘Orban’s defeat is earthquake. It can really change the way in which things looked like they were going, by way of the right-wing movement seeming inevitable,’ she explained.
‘These people had tried to depend on appearing inevitable, as if things were naturally moving toward right-wing populism. Trump and Vance had been riding that very same idea—this sort of right-wing international.
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‘And the victory of Magyar Péter, though he’s conservative, defeated this organisation that was very much tied in with Russia and the more problematic facets of Trump and Vance.’
What does this mean for international politics?
Dr Balazs Szent-Ivanyi, professor at Aston University in Politics and International Relations, told Metro Orban’s defeat won’t mean much for the US.
‘Orbán had outsized influence because he demonstrated how you’ll be able to stay in power while promoting fairly unorthodox policies when he first got here to power within the early 2010s,’ he explained.
‘Those policies have grow to be more mainstream and have been adopted by others. We’ve also seen Trump copying quite so much from Orbán’s playbook.’
Orban’s defeat after sixteen years in power shows that hard-right populist leaders who’ve ‘eroded democratic institutions’ can still be defeated through constitutional means, Dr Szent-Ivanyi said.
‘It’s an uphill battle for the opposition, but in the event that they have the appropriate leader at the appropriate time—and conditions align, like economic dissatisfaction—then it is feasible. The message for the US is analogous: despite Trump rolling back certain freedoms, including across the press, he shouldn’t be undefeatable.’
Dr Eitan Tzelgov, from the University of East Anglia, said: ‘After sixteen years, the architect of illiberal democracy is out. Viktor Orbán wrote the playbook that populist leaders worldwide got here to Budapest to review – he was ‘Trump before Trump’.
‘But he ran out of enemies to demonise and faced an unprecedented combination: a unified opposition and a conservative challenger from inside his own political world.’
Vance’s visit was a ‘damp squib’
Dr Stroschein and Dr Szent-Ivanyi each consider Vance’s visit to Budapest and endorsement of Orban didn’t make a difference in an already hotly contested election.
‘It was an enormous stadium, it was packed, but the true victory in Hungary got here from a two-year campaign that was extremely well organised by Tisza. That’s the true story,’ Dr Stroschein said.
Dr Szent-Ivanyi added: ‘The typical Hungarian voter likely didn’t know who J.D. Vance was. They’d recognise Trump, but probably not Vance. So it’s unlikely his visit brought in recent voters.
‘Still, Orbán has long valued connections with MAGA figures. His government invested heavily in constructing relationships with US conservative circles and evangelical groups. These connections were useful domestically, as Orbán could present himself as a worldwide figure despite being somewhat isolated throughout the EU.
‘But I don’t think Vance’s visit had any meaningful effect on the election consequence—it neither helped nor hurt significantly. It was more of a humid squib.’
After wielding power for greater than a decade, Orban is on his way out of Hungary’s government – but while conceding the race, he vowed not to provide up.
Dr Stroschein observed: ‘This might need been a way for him to psychologically process a serious defeat, or he might proceed to operate within the background. His network still holds plenty of power, but a few of them may flee the country. It’s definitely something to look at going forward.’
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