By Chloe Mari A. Hufana, Reporter
PHILIPPINE President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr.’s call for a regional oil-sharing mechanism and joint stockpiling across Southeast Asia is unlikely to materialize within the near term, analysts said, because the Middle East crisis exposes deep structural gaps within the region’s energy systems.
Ederson DT. Tapia, a political science professor on the University of Makati, said differing energy profiles amongst members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) complicate efforts to determine a unified response during supply disruptions.
“Some produce, while others rely almost entirely on imports,” he said via Facebook Messenger. “In times of disruption, governments are inclined to protect domestic supply first.”
ASEAN economies are amongst essentially the most vulnerable to geopolitical tensions, with a big share of Asia’s crude oil and gas imports passing through the Strait of Hormuz — a critical chokepoint affected by the US-Israel war on Iran.
Mr. Tapia said a gradual, less ambitious approach to cooperation is more realistic, including improved information-sharing systems, aligned stockpiling practices and selective bilateral agreements amongst member states.
“The true test is whether or not these can work during an actual supply shock,” he identified. “At the identical time, even modest steps on this direction could have implications for deepening regionalism.”
Josue Raphael J. Cortez, an ASEAN Studies lecturer at De La Salle-College of St. Benilde in Manila, said the region will not be yet prepared for a binding and fully operational oil-sharing framework.
He cited uneven economic capability amongst ASEAN members, in addition to the bloc’s longstanding principle of noninterference — sometimes called the “ASEAN Way” — as key constraints.
“Nonetheless, crises have historically pushed ASEAN to collaborate more closely,” he said via Messenger. “There’s a possibility that they’d commit to this sort of arrangement, but with certain considerations.”
Mr. Cortez said a phased approach — anchored on sustained consultations and incremental framework-building — offers a more viable path forward. Existing platforms similar to ASEAN+3, which incorporates China, Japan and South Korea, could function entry points for broader cooperation.
He added that infrastructure initiatives just like the ASEAN Power Grid could also help lay the groundwork for deeper energy coordination.
Mr. Marcos, speaking at a Japan-led summit last week, urged regional leaders to pursue joint oil stockpiling and activate the ASEAN Petroleum Security Agreement, warning that provide disruptions risk prolonging inflation and slowing economic growth.
He also backed further study into shared reserves, citing existing models similar to national stockpiling systems and cooperative arrangements with crude exporters.
The proposal comes because the Philippines, this 12 months’s ASEAN chairman, grapples with surging oil prices which have pushed inflation higher and increased pressure on households and businesses.
The country stays under a year-long national energy emergency, reflecting its heavy reliance on imported fuel and exposure to global supply shocks.
Inside ASEAN, oil production is concentrated in countries similar to Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, and Brunei, while import-dependent economies just like the Philippines face greater vulnerability to cost swings.
Analysts said any regional mechanism should address these disparities to realize traction.
Mr. Tapia noted that while energy cooperation could strengthen broader regional coordination, it may face criticism if it increases reliance on external partners or fails during times of crisis.
“Some will argue that the priority ought to be constructing stronger domestic reserves and diversifying energy sources,” he said.
For now, Manila is specializing in domestic measures, including plans to lift fuel reserves, diversify crude sourcing and establish a strategic petroleum reserve.
The federal government has also explored alternative suppliers, including nontraditional partners in South America, while negotiating additional supply arrangements with allies.
Congress has authorized Mr. Marcos to suspend excise taxes on petroleum products to ease rising costs, although the administration has to this point limited the relief to liquefied petroleum gas and kerosene.