THE PHILIPPINES’ rice imports this 12 months could reach 4.8 million metric tons (MMT), potentially matching or exceeding the elevated level recorded in 2024, as rising input costs and a looming El Niño threaten domestic output, the Department of Agriculture (DA) said.
“Due to pressure, it’s possible that we are going to import 4.8 million metric tons this 12 months, or more,” Agriculture Assistant Secretary Arnel V. de Mesa told reporters on Tuesday.
He said the DA’s rice program has raised its import projection from an initial 4 MMT to make sure an 85-day year-end stock, a food security benchmark utilized by the agency.
For the primary quarter alone, the Bureau of Plant Industry said the country imported 1.29 MMT of rice, which was 40.17% higher than the year-earlier shipments of 917,855 MT and 71.54% higher than the DA’s earlier forecast of 750,000 MT.
The DA said higher import volumes are needed to assist stabilize local supply and costs amid a projected decline in rice production this 12 months.
“There’s pressure because we’ll see in the subsequent planting… we’ve three shocks that we are able to expect,” Mr. de Mesa said, citing rising oil prices, higher fertilizer costs, and a looming El Niño.
The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) on Wednesday raised an El Niño alert, saying the phenomenon is more likely to develop in the approaching months and start as early as June, bringing drier-than-usual conditions that might affect agriculture.
Mr. de Mesa said higher fuel costs could increase expenses for land preparation and farm operations, while fertilizer prices are being monitored at around P2,500 to P2,800 per bag.
The DA earlier cut its 2026 palay (unmilled rice) output estimate to 19.87 MMT from the unique 20.28 MMT goal following weaker first-quarter data.
“Due to reduction within the estimates, their projection was reduced to 19.87 MMT,” Mr. de Mesa said.
The Philippine Statistics Authority reported that palay production in the primary quarter likely declined 6.9% to 4.37 MMT from 4.7 MMT a 12 months earlier.
Mr. de Mesa said output could fall further if input costs remain elevated.
“The 19.87 MMT could be further reduced… if the value of fertilizer goes as much as as high as P3,500 per bag… [and] if the value of oil goes as much as P150 to P190,” he said.
If production falls to around 18.8 MMT, this could be the bottom palay output for the reason that 17.62 MMT recorded in 2016.
The DA said additionally it is monitoring the potential impact of El Niño, which could further dampen production in the approaching months.
Mr. de Mesa said risks are more pronounced for the second cropping season, where output losses may very well be significant.
“For the second cropping season, the best-case scenario is 20% reduction in output; worst case is 50%,” he said.
“The projected harvest of the second crop is 10 to 11 million metric tons… 20% of that’s 1 to 2 million metric tons. Whether it is half, it’s as much as 5 million metric tons that could be lost. That’s the worst-case scenario.”
Meanwhile, the DA said it’s promoting using biofertilizers as a cheap alternative to fuel-based inputs to assist cushion the impact of rising costs.
“Many farmers are already using various kinds of biofertilizer, [and] it could possibly reduce the necessities of inorganic [fertilizer] from 20% as much as 50%,” Mr. de Mesa said.
He added that P500 million of the DA’s P1-billion Quick Response Fund, activated following the declaration of a state of national energy emergency, can be used to obtain biofertilizers ahead of the subsequent cropping season. — Vonn Andrei E. Villamiel