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UFC Vegas 116: Aljamain Sterling vs. Youssef Zalal continues on the prelims with a fight between Cody Durden and Jafel Filho within the bantamweight division on Saturday. Try our UFC odds series for our Durden-Filho prediction and pick.
Cody Durden (17-10-1 ), the gritty American wrestler, is trying to snap a difficult four-fight skid, recently dropping a tricky decision to Nyamjargal Tumendemberel and suffering a submission loss to Allan Nascimento, as he comes into his fight this weekend against Jafel Filho.
Jafel Filho (17-4), the submission specialist, is trying to construct momentum, recently securing a slick first-round kimura victory over Clayton Carpenter after dropping a competitive decision to Allan Nascimento, as he comes into his fight this weekend against Cody Durden.
UFC Vegas 116 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Vegas 116 Odds: Cody Durden-Jafel Filho Odds
Cody Durden: +490
Jafel Filho: -675
Over 2.5 rounds: N/A
Under 2.5 rounds: N/A
Why Cody Durden Will Win
Cody Durden is positioned to defeat Jafel Filho this weekend because his relentless wrestling and high-pace approach are the right counter to a submission specialist. By dictating exactly where the fight takes place, the American can systematically shut down Filho’s most dangerous offensive threats.
Filho relies heavily on his elite Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu pedigree and continuously hunts for fight-ending chokes and joint locks when the motion hits the mat. Nonetheless, Durden’s suffocating top pressure and defensive wrestling awareness will make it incredibly difficult for Filho to seek out any meaningful submission openings.
Now we have seen Durden successfully grind out talented grapplers by utilizing a heavy, physical approach that slowly drains their energy reserves over three rounds. As an alternative of engaging in wild scrambles, he’ll likely employ a calculated, conservative ground-and-pound technique to rack up essential control time.
If the bout stays on the feet, Durden possesses enough forward momentum and volume boxing to repeatedly back Filho against the cage. Pinning the Brazilian against the fence will completely neutralize his kicking game and permit Durden to comfortably initiate his signature chain wrestling sequences.
Ultimately, Durden simply must avoid leaving his neck exposed during early takedown entries to determine a transparent, reliable path to victory. Expect the gritty American veteran to weather the early submission attempts and grind out a dominant, clear-cut unanimous decision win on the scorecards.
Why Jafel Filho Will Win
Jafel Filho is primed to defeat Cody Durden this weekend because his lethal submission game perfectly counters the American’s wrestling-heavy approach. At any time when Durden shoots for a takedown, he shall be entering the precise realm where the Brazilian is most dangerous.
While Durden relies on top pressure and grinding out his opponents, he has historically shown defensive vulnerabilities when trapped in complex scrambles. Filho is a master at capitalizing on those exact transitional mistakes, possessing the power to grab a limb or a neck within the blink of a watch.
On the feet, the Brazilian also holds a definite speed and power advantage that can force Durden to rush his wrestling entries. By landing heavy kicks to the body and legs, Filho can compromise Durden’s base and make his takedown attempts sloppy and predictable.
Once the fight inevitably hits the canvas, Filho is greater than comfortable operating off his back. He’ll continuously throw up submission traps and sweeps, stopping Durden from ever settling into a cushty ground-and-pound rhythm.
Ultimately, Durden’s reliance on offensive wrestling shall be his downfall against such an opportunistic finisher. Expect Filho to wrap up a slick guillotine or triangle choke during a scramble to secure a spectacular, early submission victory.
Final Cody Durden-Jafel Filho Prediction & Pick
When Jafel Filho faces Cody Durden this weekend at UFC Vegas 116, sportsbooks appropriately position the damaging Brazilian as an enormous betting favorite. Durden is stepping in on extremely short notice to save lots of the flyweight bout, which significantly hinders his ability to arrange for such a lethal submission artist.
While the American veteran relies heavily on his gritty wrestling to grind opponents down, his recent four-fight losing skid exposes glaring defensive liabilities on the mat. Filho possesses the precise elite grappling toolkit needed to repeatedly exploit those transitional gaps and quickly snatch a fight-ending submission during early scrambles.
Bettors confidently locking in Filho on their sportsbook are making absolutely the smartest read, as Durden’s aggressive forward pressure will lead him directly right into a slick guillotine choke. Expect Filho to make quick work of the short-notice substitute and securely money a dominant first-round submission ticket for backers.
Final Cody Durden-Jafel Filho Prediction & Pick: Jafel Filho (-675), Under 2.5 Rounds
UFC Vegas 116: Aljamain Sterling vs. Youssef Zalal continues on the prelims with a fight between Cody Durden and Jafel Filho within the bantamweight division on Saturday. Try our UFC odds series for our Durden-Filho prediction and pick.