Max Griffin vs. Victor Valenzuela prediction, odds, pick for UFC Vegas 116

The UFC is back on the Las Vegas Apex as we’re back with a prediction and pick for this upcoming tilt within the Welterweight (170) division. California’s Max Griffin will tackle the debuting Victor Valenzuela of Chile in a heated Prelim scrap. Check our UFC odds series for the Griffin-Valenzuela prediction and pick.

Max Griffin (20-12) has gone 8-10 contained in the UFC since debuting in 2016. Facing a who’s-who of the division in a decade with the promotion, he’s dropped three of his last 4 bouts and hopes to get back within the win column against a debuting prospect. Griffin stands 5-foot-11 with a 76-inch reach.

Victor Valenzuela (13-4) will make his UFC debut following an unsuccessful audition at Dana White’s Contender series where he fell to strikes within the second round. Returning for a second likelihood, he comes into this debut the slight betting favorite. Valenzuela stands 5-foot-9 with a 71.5-inch reach.

UFC Vegas 116 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings. 

UFC Vegas 116 Odds: Max Griffin-Victor Valenzuela Odds

Max Griffin: +124

Victor Valenzuela: -148

Over 2.5 rounds: -180

Under 2.5 rounds: +140

Why Max Griffin Will Win

• Last Fight: (L) Chris Curtis – S DEC
• Last 5: 2-3
• Finishes: 9 KO/TKO, 2 SUB

Max Griffin fell via split decision in his last bout against Chris Curtis, going toe-to-toe on the striking numbers against certainly one of the higher pure boxers in the load class. Griffin’s last three losses have come against Michael Chiesa (SUB) and Michael Morales (U DEC) together with the Curtis loss, while he’s notched intermittent split-decision wins over Tim Means and Jeremiah Wells. For sure, Griffin could have the strict advantage in experience over the debuting opponent.

Griffin is usually accurate together with his 3.76 significant strikes per minute landing at a 47% clip. What’s been much more impressive is his striking defense at 58% and causing serious problems for a lot better strikers than him on the feet. During this fight, Griffin’s strong head movement and skill to slide punches could possibly be his path to victory as he looks to effective counter strike his opponent.

Valenzuela has showed an important tendency to throw the low leg kick early during his bouts, so Griffin could have to stay diligent in checking those kicks and avoiding any serious damage. He does strong work in slipping out of range and returning with heavy straight rights, so do not be surprised if Griffin can see the more fluid striking rhythm because the veteran underdog on this matchup.

Why Victor Valenzuela Will Win

• Last Fight: (W) Yusaku Kinoshita – KO/TKO (R2)
• Last 5: 4-1
• Finishes: 7 KO/TKO, 2 SUB

Victor Valenzuela fell to Michael Oliveira during his DWCS audition as his opponent beat him at his own game and caught him on the chin. He notched a six-fight winning streak (5 KO/TKO, 1 SUB) heading into that fight and unfortunately couldn’t secure a contract that night. He returned with a TKO-win on the regional circuit and now receives the decision because of his ending upside and robust striking base.

Victor Valenzuela does an important job of managing the space and at all times remaining ready in his striking stance. While he may stay heavy on his lead leg, he does so in hopes of landing big calf kicks in between his boxing mixtures. He uses his jab as an initial feeler before unloading together with his right hand. Seven of his 13 wins have come by the use of KO/TKO and he can actually make good on his failed audition with a win in his debut.

Unlike many other knockout artists making their names in regional organizations, Valenzuela may be very patient when gauging the space and doesn’t typically take too many risks by way of his stand-up game. His chin has proven to be durable and he often allows his opponents to make the primary move before he opens together with his own offense.

Final Max Griffin-Victor Valenzuela Prediction & Pick

This needs to be a reasonably even striking matchup between two expert fighters on the feet. While each side possess the power to be defensively-sound within the wrestling, this bout should mainly happen on the feet as each fighters test their striking and boxing against each other.

Victor Valenzuela is the younger prospect making his debut and positively has the upper upside, notching seven of his last eight wins by knockout. Nevertheless, Max Griffin could possibly be a stern step-up in competition considering Valenzuela couldn’t get things done during his DWCS fight.

While I believe Valenzuela should give you the chance to land on a good amount of his counter attempts, Max Griffin is way an excessive amount of of a professional to not gauge the slightly rigid timing of Valenzuela’s striking. Ultimately, Griffin should give you the chance to slide out of range and limit his own damage while putting his opponent against the cage and deep within the third round.

For our final prediction, let’s roll with the veteran Max Griffin to earn the win because the short betting underdog as this fight heads towards a choice.

Final Max Griffin-Victor Valenzuela Prediction & Pick: Max Griffin (+124); OVER 2.5 Rounds (-180)