By Justine Irish D. Tabile, Senior Reporter
HEADLINE INFLATION could surge past 8% this yr if the Middle East conflict stays unresolved, which could push the Monetary Board to hike policy rates to as much as 6%, the Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corp. Ltd. (HSBC) said.
“We forecast full-year inflation to be 6.3%, where the height can be within the fourth quarter at 8.1%, driven not mostly by energy but by food,” HSBC Senior ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) Economist Aris D. Dacanay said at a briefing on Tuesday.
This forecast assumes an adversarial scenario where the conflict persists up until the top of June or early July this yr.
Next yr, HSBC expects inflation to average 4.5% under the identical scenario.
The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) expects the patron price index (CPI) to average 6.3% this yr and 4.3% in 2027, it said last week. Each are above its 2%-4% tolerance band.
In March, inflation quickened to a two-year high of 4.1%, bringing the three-month average to 2.8%. The BSP sees the CPI remaining above 5% for the remaining of the yr.
With the inflation outlook deteriorating as a result of the war, the central bank’s policy-setting Monetary Board last week raised the goal reverse repurchase rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.5%.
BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona, Jr. said more hikes are possible as they need to temper spiraling consumer prices.
“I feel if things remain at established order, and again, the conflict persists up until June or July, I feel the BSP, given its mandate of price stability, can raise rates to as much as 6%,” Mr. Dacanay said.
This may mean that the tightening cycle could extend to next yr because the Monetary Board has only 4 more policy meetings scheduled for the remaining of the yr and so they only expect the BSP to lift rates by 25 bps at a time, with a jumbo 50-bp cut unlikely unless there may be a surprise shock.
“We’ve to grasp that the Strait of Hormuz will not be only putting a cap on the worldwide supply of energy; if you could have oil, you furthermore may have fertilizer… and urea prices have already doubled since then,” Mr. Dacanay said.
A 3rd of seaborne-traded fertilizer on the planet goes through the Strait of Hormuz.
“We’re talking about a world shortage of fertilizer, which is able to affect not the food supply now, however the yields of the food supply perhaps perhaps in three or six months’ time,” he said.
“It’s the second wave of inflation that we want to anticipate. I do must say though that the Philippines is essentially the most vulnerable here.”
The Philippines is the most important net importer of food as a percent of gross domestic product (GDP), and Filipinos spend an enormous a part of their incomes on food. On the minimum, HSBC projects food inflation can be at 8%, Mr. Dacanay said.
Faster inflation can even threaten domestic consumption, a key economic growth driver.
He cited the BSP’s latest Consumer Expectations Survey, which showed that Filipinos have began tightening their belts, even for essentials.
“They’re cutting back spending altogether, and the percent of households who said that they saved through the current quarter rose to around 56-57%, which is higher than pre-pandemic levels,” he said.
“Numerous consumers… at the moment are trying to save lots of up more to have the opportunity to insure themselves from the uncertainties ahead. And this, I feel, is a number one indicator that consumption can be on a weaker footing this yr and the following.”
HSBC forecasts the Philippine economy to grow by lower than 3.4% this yr under the adversarial scenario, well below the federal government’s 5%-6% goal. Next yr, it expects growth to rebound to 4.1%, still below the 5.5%-6.5% goal.
INTERVENTIONS
Mr. Dacanay said the federal government should implement measures to scale back the war’s impact on consumer costs, particularly the fundamental staple, rice.
Rice prices continued to leap in March, bringing inflation for the staple grain to three.6% from -3.4% in February. This was the primary time since December 2024 that rice inflation settled within the positive territory or when it stood at 0.8%.
“The fertilizer shock has not hit the Philippines yet, but as we speak, a kilogram of rice is at P47. That’s the very best, or it matches the very best in history,” he said.
“I do think certainty in rice policy can assist temper prices within the retail rice market. And that will be an enormous, huge inflation relief for the 113 million Filipino consumers.”
Specifically, he said the federal government should have a look at lowering the tariffs on rice, as bringing rice prices back to P40 can shave off 50-75 bps from HSBC’s rate hike forecasts and shave off 1.5 percentage points from inflation.
“I also think that there’s a variety of room that may be managed relating to the restaurant industry. Straight away, at 4.1%, one in every of the very best drivers of inflation is the restaurant business,” he said.
Rising fuel prices and dwindling reserves have pushed the federal government to position the country under a one-year state of energy emergency and suspend levies on kerosene and liquefied petroleum gas.
Mr. Dacanay added that the federal government can even extend the suspension on excise and value-added taxes (VAT) on diesel and gasoline.
“I feel there may be room to suspend excise taxes and even VAT if and provided that there are clear conditions of the policy returning eventually,” he said.
“I feel (the suspension of) excise taxes and VAT can deliver relief and a few extent of disinflation, but we want to think about the tradeoffs.”