Jake Matthews vs. Carlston Harris prediction, odds, pick for UFC Macau

It is time for one more prediction and pick for UFC Macau: Song vs. Figueiredo because the Predominant Card continues with this Welterweight (170) tilt. Australia’s UFC Veteran Jake Matthews will tackle Guyana’s Carlston Harris in a can’t-miss matchup from Macau. Check our UFC odds series for the Matthews-Harris prediction and pick.

Jake Matthews (22-8) comes into this bout with a 15-8 UFC record since 2014. He rode a powerful three-fight winning streak over Phil Rowe, Francisco Prado, and Chidi Njokuani until finally dropping his last bout to Neil Magny. Matthews hopes to get back on the winning track because the betting favorite, standing 5-foot-11 with a 73-inch reach.

Carlston Harris (19-7) is 4-3 contained in the UFC since 2021, most recently falling to Santiago Ponzinibbio via TKO in January 2025. He had Visa issues and needed to withdraw from a bout against Michael Chiese, but returns after significant rest hoping to get back a win because the underdog. Harris stands six feet tall with a 76-inch reach.

UFC Macau Odds, courtesy of DraftKings. 

UFC Macau Odds: Jake Matthews-Carlston Harris Odds

Jake Matthews: -325

Carlston Harris: +260

Over 2.5 rounds: +120

Under 2.5 rounds: -154

Why Jake Matthews Will Win

• Last Fight: (L) Neil Magny – SUB (d’arce choke, R3)
• Last 5: 3-2
• Finishes: 5 KO/TKO, 9 SUB

After notching back-to-back unanimous decisions and submitting Chidi Njokuani, Matthews’ trajectory within the division was halted by fellow UFC veteran Neil Magny. Matthews and Magny made for an important fight, but it surely was clear by the third round that Magny was shifting the momentum together with his superior cardio and output. Matthews caught his neck in a foul spot and underestimated the length of Magny’s arms in sinking a choke, something he’ll must be mindful of against Harris with the same frame.

Still Jake Matthews needs to be the higher striker between these two and his wrestling is way more technical than Harris’. While Harris may have the opportunity to threaten submissions together with his long limbs, Matthews does a fair higher job of staying heavy on top and controlling opponents from side and full mount. If he’s in a position to accomplish that against Harris, he must have ample opportunity to complete this fight with a submission.

Nonetheless, together with his willingness to grapple comes that incontrovertible fact that Matthews has been submitted 4 times prior to now and is not impervious to a sneaky grappler like Harris. Matthews may have to stay fundamental with no wasted movements or allowing any openings for Harris to capitalize.

Why Carlston Harris Will Win

• Last Fight: (L) Santiago Ponzinibbio – TKO (punches, R3)
• Last 5: 2-3
• Finishes: 5 KO/TKO, 6 SUB

Carlston Harris recently saw back-to-back losses for the primary time in his skilled fighting profession, each ending via knockout by the hands of the striking. Visa issues during his last bout forced him to drag out, but it surely may very well be a blessing in disguise giving him more time to coach and recuperate from the previous knockouts. For a fighter like Harris, this can be about getting over the mental block of the last two losses and overcoming underdog odds.

Carlston Harris has an important frame for this division and never only does he use every little bit of a 76-inch reach, but he also has incredibly long legs and in a position to kick opponents while keeping them out of range. He should look to implement far more of that aspect because it’ll only help create space and deter Matthews from shooting for the takedown.

Harris fights behind a 55% takedown defense rate and might want to use every little bit of it when facing Matthews. Harris is the significantly more fluid striker, so it’ll only encourage Matthews to hunt the takedown and check out to earn minutes in ground control. To combat that, Harris should look to force the clinch and land knees to the body in wearing on Matthews’ cardio.

Final Jake Matthews-Carlston Harris Prediction & Pick

Each fighters come into this bout following losses on their records, so either side needs to be motivated to seek out a win and finish this fight. Carlston Harris has a likelihood to manage this fight on the feet if he’s able to take care of the striking distance and remain stern in his takedown defense.

Jake Matthews, alternatively, is the far more imposing grappler and thrives in keeping downed opponents on the bottom, so it’ll be interesting to see how difficult it’s for Harris to return to his feet when he’s eventually taken down.

I feel the betting odds are right where they must be as I do not see Jake Matthews getting caught clean with a Harris punch before he’s in a position to dominate on the bottom. Expect a one-sided showing on the bottom as Jake Matthews controls the motion and eventually finds a finish within the second-half of this fight.

Final Jake Matthews-Carlston Harris Prediction & Pick: Jake Matthews (-325); UNDER 2.5 Rounds (-154)