THE Philippine property market has remained resilient despite major disruptions since 2019, although the continued Middle East conflict could pose the largest risk thus far, in response to Leechiu Property Consultants.
“Despite the cumulative pressure, the structural foundations of the market remain intact. The basics that supported 2019, the last clean 12 months for Philippine real estate, are still in place. They’re simply harder to see beneath six layers of disruption,” Leechiu Property Consultants said in an evaluation posted on its website.
The firm warned that the crisis could offset recent monetary easing as gasoline and diesel prices increased by 63% and 146%, respectively.
Leechiu said the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) raised its benchmark rate of interest to 4.5% amid renewed inflation concerns despite cumulative rate cuts totaling 225 basis points since August 2024.
“For the primary time in over two years, the central bank raised its benchmark rate of interest by 25 basis points to 4.5%, responding to renewed inflationary pressures driven by oil price shocks linked to the Middle East conflict,” the firm said.
The market has faced several disruptions since 2019, including the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine war and inflation spike in 2022, the ban on Philippine offshore gaming operators (POGOs) in 2024, and tariff increases imposed by US President Donald J. Trump, in addition to controversies involving Philippine flood control projects in 2025.
The impact has been reflected within the broader economy, with the Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) down 23% from its 2019 closing level and gross domestic product (GDP) growth slowing to 4.4% in 2025, the weakest because the pandemic.
The commercial and retail sectors outperformed amid the six crises.
Industrial rents have increased by 45% since 2019 and remain the one segment with consistent rent growth across every global disruption, driven by e-commerce, fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) firms, and the China+1+1 supply chain trend.
Retail revenue increased 7.5% 12 months on 12 months, with three developers posting P61.6 billion in revenue in the primary half of 2025. Urban big-box and experiential retail formats are gaining traction, supporting a positive short- and long-term outlook.
“The market is running out of gas, however the engine is sound. The basics that made 2019 an excellent 12 months are still here, just buried under six layers of crisis. Smart capital positions now,” said Tam Angel, director for investment sales at Leechiu Property Consultants. — Juliana Chloe A. Gonzales