Luis Gurule vs. Rei Tsuruya prediction, odds, pick for UFC Macau

UFC Macau: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo continues on the prelims with a fight between Luis Gurule and Rei Tsuruya within the bantamweight division on Saturday. Try our UFC odds series for our Gurule-Tsuruya prediction and pick.

Luis Gurule (11-3) enters UFC Macau having just bounced back with a unanimous decision win over Daniel Barez at UFC Fight Night on May 16. That victory was a much-needed confidence boost after back-to-back decision losses to Jesus Aguilar and Alden Coria, as he comes into his fight this weekend against Rei Tsuruya.

Rei Tsuruya (10-1) enters UFC Macau carrying one of the vital exciting ending resumes within the flyweight division with 4 KOs and 4 submissions. He earned his UFC contract by winning the Road to UFC Season 2 tournament before defeating Carlos Hernandez by decision in his promotional debut at UFC 303. His lone loss got here against current UFC Flyweight Champion Joshua Van at UFC 313 last March, as he comes into his fight this weekend against Luis Gurule.

UFC Macau Odds, courtesy of DraftKings. 

UFC Macau Odds: Luis Gurule-Rei Tsuruya Odds

Luis Gurule: +195

Rei Tsuruya: -238

Over 2.5 rounds: -188

Under 2.5 rounds: +145

Why Luis Gurule Will Win

Luis Gurule enters this fight with a vital edge that usually gets ignored, his striking ability. At UFC 313, Joshua Van exposed Tsuruya as “one-dimensional,” outlanding him by 80 strikes and defending 17 of his 21 takedown attempts en path to a dominant 30-27 sweep.

If Gurule can replicate that blueprint, staying disciplined on the feet and keeping Tsuruya off his hips, he has an actual path to victory. “Grim” has shown sharp hands throughout his profession, earning multiple TKO stoppages on the regional circuit before making it to the UFC.

Tsuruya’s entire game is built around his wrestling and submission offense, but when that grappling is neutralized, he has shown little or no to fall back on within the stand-up. Gurule is the more versatile fighter, and fighting in an environment where the gang isn’t squarely behind Tsuruya could disrupt his often relentless momentum.

Gurule also arrives on a fresh wave of confidence after his decision win over Daniel Barez just two weeks ago. He’s battle-tested, sharp, and riding positive energy, and against a fighter whose only proven weapon is his grappling, “Grim” has every tool obligatory to come back away with the upset.

Why Rei Tsuruya Will Win

Rei Tsuruya is solely on a distinct level in the case of grappling, boasting elite wrestling and jiu-jitsu that has allowed him to complete opponents in every way possible throughout his 10-1 profession. His unorthodox over-hook game and inventive takedown entries are unlike anything Gurule has faced on the regional circuit.

Gurule has shown an actual vulnerability to pressure fighters within the UFC, going 1-3 at the best level with losses coming via decision and TKO. When opponents dictate the pace and impose their will, “Grim” has struggled to search out answers — and Tsuruya will do exactly that from the opening bell.

Tsuruya’s relentless cardio and cage control mean that even when Gurule survives early scrambles, the Japanese prospect will keep coming in waves. His submission threat from every position forces opponents to be defensive continuously, draining their energy and creating openings for finishes.

Gurule’s recent win over Barez was encouraging, but Tsuruya represents a large step up in competition. With home-crowd energy in Asia and the momentum of proving himself after his first profession loss to champion Joshua Van, Tsuruya is motivated, sharp, and fully able to ending this fight inside the space.

Final Kangjie Zhu-Rei Tsuruya Prediction & Pick

It is a compelling flyweight matchup between a creative Japanese grappler trying to rebound and a tricky American striker riding fresh momentum. The important thing query is straightforward, can Gurule keep this fight standing long enough to take advantage of Tsuruya’s one-dimensional tendencies?

Gurule showed in his Barez win that he can grind through adversity and execute a game plan over three rounds. But Tsuruya’s relentless grappling volume and unorthodox over-hook entries are a distinct puzzle entirely — one that only a few fighters at flyweight have truly solved.

Tsuruya will inevitably get his takedowns, and once he gets Gurule to the mat, the submission threat becomes very real. Gurule has the guts to survive scrambles, but Tsuruya’s ending instincts are just too sharp to disregard.

Final Luis Gurule-Rei Tsuruya Prediction & Pick: Rei Tsuruya (-238), Under 2.5 Rounds (+145)