Gambling isn’t offered on this website in any form.
UFC Vegas 118: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim continues on the predominant card with a fight between Fares Ziam and Tom Nolan within the lightweight division on Saturday. Take a look at our UFC odds series for our Ding-Henrique prediction and pick.
Fares Ziam (18-4) is riding certainly one of the most well liked streaks within the UFC lightweight division, having won six consecutive fights. The French ranked contender dominated Mike Davis via unanimous decision in January 2025 before brutally ending Nazim Sadykhov with strikes in his most up-to-date outing, extending his winning run and solidifying his place at number 15 within the lightweight rankings. With six KO wins and elite grappling to enhance his striking arsenal, Ziam is firing on all cylinders as he comes into his fight this weekend against Tom Nolan.
Tom Nolan (10-1) is probably the most exciting young prospects within the UFC lightweight division. The Australian standout earned a gritty unanimous decision over Viacheslav Borshchev at UFC 312 in February 2025, then followed it up with a slick first-round rear naked choke submission of Charlie Campbell at UFC Perth in September 2025. Now riding a four-fight win streak with five profession KO wins and a rapidly expanding skill set, the 26-year-old “Big Train” arrives stuffed with confidence as he comes into his fight this weekend against Fares Ziam.
UFC Vegas 118 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Vegas 118 Odds: Fares Ziam-Tom Nolan Odds
Fares Ziam: -310
Tom Nolan: +250
Over 1.5 rounds: -215
Under 1.5 rounds: +165
Why Fares Ziam Will Win
Fares “Smile Killer” Ziam (18-4) is on a six-fight win streak and ranked fifteenth within the UFC lightweight division, making him probably the most in-form fighters at 155 kilos heading into Saturday night. That level of sustained excellence against UFC-level competition is solely something Nolan has not yet needed to cope with in his young profession.
Ziam’s striking is elite, his combination of crisp boxing, powerful kicks, and ending instinct has allowed him to stop opponents at will throughout his win streak. Nolan has shown heart and toughness, but his striking defense against a technically superior opponent like Ziam shall be severely tested from the opening bell.
The experience gap is a significant factor here, Ziam has faced and beaten ranked competition while Nolan continues to be climbing the ladder against unranked opponents. That jump in competition level is huge and will expose holes in Nolan’s game that regional-level fighters simply couldn’t exploit.
Ziam’s grappling also gives him an entire game plan no matter where the fight goes. Even when Nolan tries to make use of his wrestling and physical tools to pull Ziam into uncomfortable positions, “Smile Killer” has the submission awareness and scrambling ability to neutralize that threat.
Why Tom Nolan Will Win
Tom “Big Train” Nolan (10-1) is probably the most athletically gifted young fighters within the UFC lightweight division, and his combination of size, reach, and ending ability gives him a legitimate path to a large upset on Saturday night. At just 26 years old, Nolan is a rare mix of physical tools and rapid development that would catch a veteran like Ziam off guard.
Nolan’s four-fight UFC win streak includes victories over increasingly tough competition, and his rear naked choke finish of Charlie Campbell at UFC Perth showed that his submission game is sharp and battle-tested. If he can close the gap and get Ziam to the mat, the fight enters territory where the experienced Frenchman could also be uncomfortable.
Ziam, despite his impressive win streak, has never faced a fighter with Nolan’s combination of size, reach, and physical athleticism at lightweight. Nolan’s 75-inch reach and 6’2″ frame give him a physical profile that Ziam simply has not handled on his path to a ranked position.
Nolan’s five profession KO wins also prove that his hands carry real power able to ending the fight at any moment. One well-timed overhand right or knee within the clinch, weapons Nolan has used before, could put Ziam’s winning streak to a sudden and dramatic end.
Final Fares Ziam-Tom Nolan Prediction & Pick
Fares Ziam enters this fight because the clear favorite, backed by a six-fight win streak and ranked status at number 15 within the UFC lightweight division. His technical striking, ending ability, and experience against top competition make him a major step up for the young Australian prospect.
Tom Nolan isn’t any pushover though his size, reach advantage, and four-fight UFC win streak prove he belongs on this stage and has the tools to make this uncomfortable for Ziam. The query is whether or not his rapid development has been fast enough to handle a ranked, seasoned contender.
Nolan’s power and athleticism will keep this competitive within the early rounds, but Ziam’s technical precision and ending experience should take over because the fight progresses. The experience gap will ultimately be too wide to beat for the 26-year-old.
Fares Ziam keeps his streaking going via TKO within the second round, showcasing his elite striking and cementing his case for a top-10 opponent at UFC Vegas 118.
Final Fares Ziam-Tom Nolan Prediction & Pick: Fares Ziam (-310), Over 1.5 Rounds (-215)
UFC Vegas 118: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim continues on the predominant card with a fight between Fares Ziam and Tom Nolan within the lightweight division on Saturday. Take a look at our UFC odds series for our Ding-Henrique prediction and pick. Fares Ziam (18-4) is riding certainly one of the most well liked streaks within the UFC lightweight division, having won six consecutive fights.