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UFC Baku: Rafael Fiziev vs Manuel Torres continues on the foremost card with a fight between Asu Almabayev and Charles Johnson within the flyweight division. Check out our UFC odds series for our Almabayev-Johnson prediction and pick.
Asu Almabayev (23-3) is firmly within the title conversation. He choked out Alex Perez with a lightning-fast guillotine in only 22 seconds of round three at UFC Fight Night in November 2025, extending one of the crucial dominant runs within the division as he comes into his fight this weekend against Charles Johnson.
Charles Johnson (19-8) has been on a bumpy but battle-tested road currently. He blasted Lone’er Kavanagh with a second-round KO punch in August 2025, but then stepped up against ranked contender Alex Perez and was stopped by a left hook TKO at 3:16 of round one in January 2026, before bouncing back with a gritty split decision over Bruno Silva in March 2026. A person who’s seen every type of fight as he comes into his fight this weekend against Asu Almabayev.
UFC Baku Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Baku Odds: Asu Almabayev-Charles Johnson Odds
Asu Almabayev: -258
Charles Johnson: +210
Over 2.5 rounds: -260
Under 2.5 rounds: +195
Why Asu Almabayev Will Win
Asu “Zulfikar” Almabayev is a grappling nightmare, and his numbers make that crystal clear. He ranks within the 98th percentile for control time at 178 seconds per round, the 96th percentile for takedowns landed at 1.69 per round, and the ninetieth percentile for submission attempts, a trifecta that makes him one of the crucial suffocating flyweights on your complete UFC roster.
Charles Johnson’s number-one-ranked weakness is his defensive grappling, and he has been tapped out zero times just because he hasn’t faced a submission threat like Almabayev yet. Almabayev’s nine profession submission wins include rear naked chokes, guillotines, a Peruvian necktie, and an armbar, meaning he has a various enough submission arsenal to attack from multiple positions.
Johnson’s takedown defense sits at 69%, which sounds respectable until you realize Almabayev averages 4.46 takedown attempts per quarter-hour with 42% accuracy, he’ll get his shots, and he only needs one to chain right into a finish. Once Almabayev gets Johnson pinned to the mat, his ground-and-pound accuracy of 73.8% will wear him down fast.
Almabayev’s 50% striking accuracy and elite cage control mean he also can make Johnson uncomfortable on the feet before pivoting to his dominant grappling game. At ranked #8 within the division and riding a dominant win streak, Almabayev has every tool needed to grind Johnson out and make a serious statement at UFC Baku.
Why Charles Johnson Will Win
Charles “InnerG” Johnson is a volume-striking machine, and his stats place him among the many elite within the flyweight division. He ranks third all-time amongst UFC flyweights in striking differential at +1.47, and fifth all-time in strikes landed per minute, numbers that reflect a fighter who doesn’t just throw, he consistently out-works everyone he faces.
Almabayev’s most glaring weakness on the stat sheet is his KO/TKO defense, ranked dead last within the division, with zero profession knockouts or TKOs on his résumé suggesting he’s never developed the punching power to maintain opponents honest. Johnson carries eight profession KO wins and a 0.34 knockdown average, meaning he has the legitimate stopping power to take advantage of that vulnerability in a serious way.
Almabayev’s one UFC loss got here against Manel Kape, where he was completely overwhelmed by speed and explosiveness, precisely the type of high-output striking style that Johnson brings each round. Johnson’s total strikes defense of 55% and his ability to soak up and keep firing make him the style of relentless pressure fighter that Almabayev simply has not solved.
Almabayev’s hand injury forced him off a scheduled headliner earlier this yr, raising legitimate questions on his durability heading into this matchup. If Johnson can keep the fight standing and pour on his trademark volume, the upset may be very much on the table.
Final Asu Almabayev-Charles Johnson Prediction & Pick
This flyweight matchup is a textbook striker vs. grappler collision, and the most important variable is whether or not Johnson can keep his feet planted long enough to unload his volume striking before Almabayev drags him into deep water on the mat.
Johnson’s output is elite and his KO power is real, but Almabayev’s 98th percentile control time and suffocating top game represent a method that has broken way more experienced flyweights than Johnson. The moment this fight hits the canvas, your complete complexion changes dramatically in Almabayev’s favor.
Almabayev’s hand injury is value monitoring, but he’s had ample time to get better and has shown no reluctance heading into fight week. Johnson’s best likelihood is a quick, aggressive first round that keeps Almabayev reactive and unable to determine his grappling rhythm.
Ultimately, Almabayev’s elite wrestling and submission depth make him the smarter pick in a five-round scenario.
Final Asu Almabayev-Charles Johnson Prediction & Pick: Asu Almabayev (-258), Under 2.5 rounds (+195)
UFC Baku: Rafael Fiziev vs Manuel Torres continues on the foremost card with a fight between Asu Almabayev and Charles Johnson within the flyweight division. Take a look at our UFC odds series for our Almabayev-Johnson prediction and pick. Asu Almabayev (23-3) is firmly within the title conversation.