PHILIPPINE STOCKS may stay under pressure this week as investors weigh rising geopolitical and inflation risks and monitor President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr.’s State of the Nation Address.
On Friday, the Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) edged down by 0.03% or 2.11 points to shut at 6,281.01, while the broader all shares index went down by 0.13% or 4.59 points to finish at 3,422.48.
Week on week, the PSEi decreased by 123.1 points from July 17’s finish of 6,404.11.
“The local market declined as sentiment got hammered by the rise in global oil prices, with Brent crude hitting $100 per barrel, and the further weakening of the local currency to record lows… On a positive note, last-minute bargain hunting trimmed the market’s losses,” Philstocks Financial, Inc. Research Manager Japhet Louis O. Tantiangco said in a Viber message.
F. Yap Securities, Inc. added that worsening hostilities within the Gulf region continued to affect the market last week, with investors also turning cautious as they await the discharge of more corporate financial results.
“Volatile crude oil pricing and forex may proceed, as choke points from the Strait of Hormuz expanded to the Red Sea.”
For this week, the Iran conflict will proceed to be a key trading driver as this might keep global oil prices and Philippine inflation elevated, especially with the peso also sinking to fresh lows, Mr. Tantiangco said.
“With the worsening situation within the Middle East adding to the already worrisome backdrop of slowing economic growth and elevated inflation, downside risks are again heightened for the local bourse,” he said.
“The local currency has weakened further, hitting a brand new record low of P61.85 amid a powerful dollar, higher import bill expectations, and recent tariff threats from the US.”
US President Donald J. Trump imposed a 12.5% tariff on goods from the Philippines after the Office of the US Trade Representative determined that the country had didn’t curb imports of products produced with forced labor.
F. Yap Securities said the peso’s slide adds fresh inflation risks and limits the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) room to ease. “Because [the Philippines] imports virtually all of its fuel requirements, crude spikes trigger immediate second-round effects across all transport tariffs, agricultural logistics, and baseline consumer spending. With headline inflation hovering above 6%, we expect the BSP to keep up a firmly hawkish stance…”
“(The) market is anticipated to look at out for President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr.’s upcoming State of the Nation Address in hopes of catalysts, including policies that may address our predominant macroeconomic concerns, namely slowing growth and rising inflation,” Mr. Tantiangco added.
“With all of the headwinds at play, the local market could move with a downward bias in (this) week’s trading… The market’s support is seen at 6,150. Resistance is seen at 6,400.” — Alexandria Grace C. Magno