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UFC Belgrade: Uros Medic vs Daniel Rodriguez continues on the fundamental card with a fight between Jan Blachowicz and Navajo Stirling in the sunshine heavyweight division. Check out our UFC Belgrade odds series for our Blachowicz-Stirling prediction and pick.
Jan Błachowicz (29-11-2) enters this weekend as the previous light heavyweight champ but is mired in a five-fight winless skid, his last decisive victory dating back to a 2022 win over Aleksandar Rakic. He’s since drawn with Magomed Ankalaev and Bogdan Guskov while dropping decisions to Alex Pereira and Carlos Ulberg, as he comes into his fight this weekend against Navajo Stirling.
Navajo Stirling (10-0) enters UFC Belgrade undefeated, riding a six-fight UFC win streak and currently ranked #12 in the sunshine heavyweight division. He most recently finished Ion Cutelaba by TKO in June and Bruno Lopes by second-round stoppage in March, showcasing real power to go together with his unblemished record, as he comes into his fight this weekend against Jan Błachowicz.
UFC Belgrade Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Belgrade Odds: Jan Blachowicz-Navajo Stirling Odds
Jan Blachowicz: +250
Navajo Stirling: -310
Over 2.5 rounds: -215
Under 2.5 rounds: +165
Why Jan Blachowicz Will Win
Jan Błachowicz’s championship pedigree and experience against elite competition give him an actual edge over an unproven Navajo Stirling at UFC Belgrade. Błachowicz has shared the cage with Alex Pereira, Magomed Ankalaev, and others, and even in a winless stretch, he’s remained competitive against arguably the very best fighters within the division.
Stirling, meanwhile, built his perfect 10-0 record almost entirely against opponents outside Błachowicz’s tier, and this represents by far the hardest test of his profession. That gap in level of competition could expose real holes in his game once he’s tested by a former champion’s veteran craft and sturdiness.
Błachowicz also brings real ending power and variety, with nine knockouts and nine submissions across his profession, giving him multiple ways to finish the fight if Stirling’s inexperience shows. His durability on the championship level, even in losses, suggests he won’t be easy for a rising prospect to easily blast out.
Given Błachowicz’s championship experience, well-rounded ending arsenal, and the numerous step-up in competition Stirling is facing, the veteran Pole has a legitimate case to spring the upset. Expect Błachowicz to weather Stirling’s power early and use his grappling and clinch craft to manage the fight late.
Why Navajo Stirling Will Win
Navajo Stirling’s youth, power, and undefeated momentum give him a real edge over a fading Jan Błachowicz at UFC Belgrade. At 28 years old and riding a six-fight win streak contained in the Octagon, Stirling holds a major athleticism advantage over the 43-year-old former champion, and his six knockout wins show he has the ability to complete fights at any moment.
Błachowicz enters on a five-fight winless skid, his longest drought in over a decade, and his last decisive victory got here all the way in which back in 2022. That form of prolonged struggle against elite competition suggests his skills may finally be eroding at the very best level, opening the door for a hungrier, brisker fighter like Stirling.
Stirling also holds a slight reach and size advantage at 6’4″ with a 79-inch reach, and he’s been significantly more lively on the feet, landing 6.24 significant strikes per minute in comparison with Błachowicz’s 3.55. That volume disparity could allow Stirling to easily out-work the veteran over quarter-hour even when he cannot find an early finish.
Given Stirling’s youth, power, and superior recent form against Błachowicz’s prolonged winless run, the City Kickboxing product looks well-positioned at hand the previous champion a fifth straight fight with no win.
Final Jan Blachowicz-Navajo Stirling Prediction & Pick
This co-main event pits Navajo Stirling’s youth and power against Jan Błachowicz’s championship experience, and the physical gulf between them looks significant. Stirling holds notable edges in age, activity, and volume, while riding an ideal 10-0 record into his hardest test yet.
Błachowicz’s five-fight winless skid against elite competition is an actual concern, but his championship pedigree and ending versatility, nine knockouts and nine submissions, mean he can never be fully written off. The gap in level of competition Stirling has faced in comparison with Błachowicz’s résumé stays the largest query mark heading into Belgrade.
Expect Stirling’s youth and volume to eventually take over because the fight progresses, wearing down a veteran who hasn’t tasted victory in years. Search for Stirling to tug away within the second half and win by decision, extending his unbeaten streak to 11-0 at Błachowicz’s expense.
Final Jan Blachowicz-Navajo Stirling Prediction & Pick: Navajo Stirling (-310); OVER 2.5 Rounds (-215)
UFC Belgrade: Uros Medic vs Daniel Rodriguez continues on the fundamental card with a fight between Jan Blachowicz and Navajo Stirling in the sunshine heavyweight division. Take a look at our UFC Belgrade odds series for our Blachowicz-Stirling prediction and pick.