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Ireland’s general election delivered an early surprise on Friday as Sinn Féin, the pro-reunification party, emerged with a narrow lead in an exit poll.
However the country’s essential opposition party, which had rattled business leaders within the campaign with guarantees of policy changes, tax cuts and spending pledges, looked set to struggle to form a government, compared with the combined forces of outgoing partners Nice Gael and Fianna Fáil, who were only barely behind.
Sinn Féin won 21.1 per cent of first preference votes under Ireland’s proportional representation system, in accordance with the exit poll conducted by Ipsos B&A; the conservative Nice Gael was on 21 per cent and centrist party Fianna Fáil had 19.5 per cent in the identical survey.
Matt Carthy, Sinn Féin’s director of elections, called it a “phenomenal result” for the nationalist party, which won essentially the most first-preference votes on the last election in 2020, but has plummeted within the polls up to now 12 months.
“Sinn Féin may emerge from these elections as the most important political party,” he told Irish public broadcaster RTÉ.
The result was unexpected since Prime Minister Simon Harris’s conservative Nice Gael — which has been in office since 2011 and is looking for a record fourth consecutive term — had been falling in opinion polls after a series of campaign mis-steps, and had been in third place going into the election. Fianna Fáil had been seen as being ahead of Sinn Féin in first place.
Longtime rivals before teaming up in government in 2020, Nice Gael and Fianna Fáil had warned voters of the risks of turfing them out given the danger of transatlantic trade shocks under a brand new term for Donald Trump.
Ireland has built its economic model on attracting foreign investment, including major US tech and pharma giants, whose huge corporation taxes have delivered eye-popping surpluses that may very well be in danger if the US president-elect follows through on tax and tariff threats.
Each Fianna Fáil and Nice Gael have vehemently ruled out any coalition with Sinn Féin, which was once the mouthpiece of IRA paramilitaries in Northern Ireland’s Troubles conflict. This is able to make its path to power complicated even when it emerges because the country’s hottest party.
Gary Murphy, politics professor at Dublin City University, said “on these numbers, a continuation of Fianna Fáil and Nice Gael and one other looks the most definitely”.
But Aidan Regan, a professor of political economy at University College Dublin, wrote on social media platform X that “It should take 4 parties to form a stable government” given Ireland’s increasing political fragmentation.
Fianna Fáil’s director of elections, Jack Chambers, looked unperturbed.
“It’s all within the margin of error,” he told RTÉ. “It’s a three-way race now.” The exit poll had a margin of error of 1.4 per cent.
Damien English of Nice Gael called his party’s result “a really solid performance . . . Hopefully tomorrow will bring us even higher news.”
Vote counting begins on Saturday.
Under Ireland’s proportional representation system, voters rank candidates in accordance with their preference. As such, the best way that lower-preference votes are transferred between parties will determine the ultimate final result.
In keeping with the exit poll, which was carried out on behalf of the Irish Times, broadcasters RTÉ and TG4 and Trinity College Dublin, Fianna Fáil and Nice Gael each scored 20 per cent of second-preference votes, ahead of Sinn Féin on 17 per cent.
Carthy said that if Sinn Féin’s lead was confirmed, there could be an “obligation” on other parties to “reflect on the brand new make-up of the Dáil [lower house of parliament]”.
Sinn Féin had campaigned to oust the 2 parties which have dominated Irish politics for a century and deliver sweeping change to finish the country’s housing crisis.
But Fianna Fáil and Nice Gael might be eyeing potential junior partners among the many smaller parties in a bid to secure the 88 seats needed to form a government.
The small leftist Social Democrats party scored 5.8 per cent; Labour had 5 per cent. The Green party, the junior member of the outgoing coalition, had 4 per cent, in accordance with the exit poll. Independents also polled strongly.
Social Democrats leader Holly Cairns was unable to vote after giving birth on election day.
