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We’re set for an additional betting prediction and pick for UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland as we head to the Welterweight (170) Division for this next showdown. Australia’s own Jonathan Micallef will tackle France’s Kevin Jousset in an exciting matchup between high-level strikers. Check the UFC odds series for our Micallef-Jousset prediction and pick.
Jonathan Micallef (7-1) will make his UFC debut on Saturday following a submission victory in his Contender Series audition. He’s the No. 4-ranked prospect in Australia and might be fighting in front of a house crowd during this one, so expect the fans to be fully behind him because the betting underdog. Micallef stands six feet tall with a 77-inch reach.
Kevin Jousset (10-3) has gone 2-1 within the UFC since debuting in 2023. He dropped his first UFC bout his last day trip against Bryan Battle in a chaotic two-round scrap. Now, he comes into hostile territory because the betting favorite trying to humble one other fresh prospect. Jousset stands 6-foot-2 with a 75-inch reach.
Listed below are the UFC 312 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 312 Odds: Jonathan Micallef-Kevin Jousset Odds
Jonathan Micallef: +210
Kevin Jousset: -258
Over 2.5 rounds: -160
Under 2.5 rounds: +124
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Why Jonathan Micallef Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Mohamed Ado – SUB (triangle choke, R1)
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 2 KO/TKO, 3 SUB
Jonathan Micallef was very purposeful and determined during his DWCS audition in taking the fight where he felt most comfortable and locking in a triangle choke in the primary round. His opponent was an unbeaten prospect and while Micallef hasn’t been fighting for very long (pro since ’22) he’s been in a position to evolve substantially in only a brief period of time. Recently working on his submission grappling, he’ll definitely have a bonus on the bottom if he’s in a position to get Jousset down there.
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Micallef has face his fair-share of strikers up to now, but he’ll be coping with a really technical kickboxer in Jousset. His opponent makes use of his leg kicks very incessantly, so Micallef could have to remain diligent in checking those early on. He’s also averaging five takedowns per quarter-hour, so expect the wrestling to be something Micallef continually goes back to throughout this one. While he’ll be wanting to display a few of his striking prowess, he should waste no time in getting this fight to the bottom and finding a submission.
Why Kevin Jousset Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) Bryan Battle – TKO (punches, R1)
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 4 KO/TKO, 1 SUB
Kevin Jousset is coming in following his first loss within the UFC, so this might be a robust indicator of his resiliency and character as a fighter. He’s a classically-trained kickboxer and has very solid technique with all the things he throws. He’s the a lot better striker when it comes to fluidity and hitting his goal, so expect him to try to keep this fight on the feet knowing where he has the very best likelihood to win. He lost his last fight on home soil, so expect him to embrace switching roles because the villain as he tries to exact his revenge and get this win back.
Kevin Jousset boasts 62% takedown defense and while he isn’t typically dangerous off his back, he definitely has a nasty guillotine choke and may catch his opponent if he isn’t careful. Jousset has also taken some damage to his chin over the previous couple of fights, so expect a rather more defensive approach and he keeps the exchanges throughout this one at a secure distance. His ability to regulate the range and shut distance without getting hit is what makes him the betting favorite on this matchup.
Final Jonathan Micallef-Kevin Jousset Prediction & Pick
We’ll have a classic striker vs. grappler during this one as Jonathan Micallef makes his debut in front of a house country crowd. He should find a way to feed off the fans’ energy as he’ll attempt to bring this fight to the bottom and work his submission. Kevin Jousset, nonetheless, is an elite kickboxer and might be peppering Micallef with kicks and straight punches down the center throughout this whole fight.
Kevin Jousset does an ideal job of forcing other strikers to fight at his pace and range, however it’ll be interesting to see how he handles an aggressive grappler like Micallef. Micallef wastes no time in chasing the submission and we are able to expect him to be aggressive immediately in chasing a leg and attempting to get this fight to the bottom.
While the betting odds definitely don’t favor him, we’ll take the underdog shot with Jonathan Micallef on this fight. The energy from the pro-Aussie crowd should give him a lift and I expect him to grind out a tricky submission win late on this fight.
Final Jonathan Micallef-Kevin Jousset Prediction & Pick: Jonathan Micallef (+210)
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