By 2100, hospitalizations from diarrheal diseases are predicted to extend in the town of Dhaka in Bangladesh in consequence of climate change, even when global warming stays under 2 degrees Celsius. Farhana Haque and colleagues from University College London, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine and icddr,b report these findings in a brand new study published September 26 within the open access journal PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases.
As certainly one of the world’s most densely population cities, Dhaka deals with a high burden of diarrheal diseases. While some studies have checked out how weather affects diarrhea in Bangladesh, few have examined the longer term impact of climate change. A hotter climate is predicted to worsen this public health issue by making the town hotter and exacerbating water quality issues.
In the brand new study, researchers estimated the risks posed by diarrheal diseases under various global warming scenarios. They looked to see if day by day rainfall, humidity and temperature in Dhaka affected rates of hospitalizations from diarrheal disease, using data from about 3 million diarrhea cases treated at a serious hospital in Dhaka from 1981 to 2010. Statistical evaluation revealed that higher day by day temperatures significantly increased the danger of diarrhea for all age groups. Assuming that the planet warms by 1.5 °C to 2 °C on average, hospitalizations as a consequence of diarrheal disease are expected to extend by 4.5% to 7.4% in all age groups by the top of the century. Children under five could also be especially hard hit, with hospitalization rates estiated to extend by 5.7% to 9.4%.
Under the Paris Agreement, a global treaty on climate change, countries agreed to set global warming targets to under 2°C. The brand new study shows that even when these targets are met, hospitalizations from diarrhea will increase substantially in Dhaka. These findings underscore the importance of higher preparing the town to forestall and manage diarrheal diseases.
The authors add: “Diarrhoea hospitalisation will increase significantly in Dhaka by 4.5 — 7.4% in all age groups by the 2100s even when the worldwide warming targets adopted by the Paris Agreement is reached. This underscores the importance of preparing the town for management and prevention of diarrhoeal diseases.”
