THE PHILIPPINES could potentially lose 18.1% of its gross domestic product (GDP) by 2070 attributable to climate change under a high emissions scenario, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) said.
“Within the Philippines, about half of losses come from sea level rise. After which, a bigger share than on the regional average would come from natural resource-based sectors, so agriculture, fisheries, forestry,” David A. Raitzer, senior economist on the ADB’s Economic Research and Development Impact Department, said in a virtual briefing on Thursday.
Specifically, the Philippines’ agriculture, forestry and fisheries sectors could suffer a combined 4.7% output loss by 2070 attributable to the impact of climate change, in keeping with the ADB’s inaugural Asia-Pacific Climate Report.
The estimated loss within the Philippines’ natural resource-based sectors is higher than the two.1% average loss across the Asia-Pacific, the ADB said.
The developing Asia-Pacific region could potentially suffer a 17% loss in its collective GDP by 2070 if high emissions proceed. The losses could climb to as much as 41% of the region’s GDP by 2100.
Amongst Southeast Asian economies, Vietnam will experience the very best overall GDP loss attributable to climate change at 30.2% by 2070, followed by Indonesia (26.8%).
“These losses are far above prior model-based losses and are consistent with the upper certain of econometric estimates,” the ADB said within the report. “In addition they confirm that climate policy responses, including adaptation and mitigation, will likely be essential to the longer term welfare of the Asia and Pacific region.”
If climate change continues to worsen, the rising sea levels and storm surges will likely cause trillions of dollars’ value of annual damage within the Asia-Pacific by 2070, ADB Principal Economist Yi Jiang said at a briefing.
Toru Kubo, senior director on the ADB’s Climate Change and Sustainable Development Department, said inhabited parts of the Asia-Pacific will likely be 4 to eight degrees Celsius (°C) warmer throughout the century.
“Provided that warmer air of 1°C can hold roughly 7% more water, that’s roughly 30-50% more moisture within the atmosphere that comes crashing down when it hits cold air masses,” Mr. Kubo told the briefing.
“Our cities, the rivers, the drainage systems, the critical infrastructure for power, transport, water, food production systems, buildings and houses will not be designed to address such extreme heat and sudden volumes of water.”
The Asia-Pacific region generates about half of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions. Lots of its countries are signatories to the Paris Agreement, which seeks to limit the common global temperature to inside 1.5°C.
“Climate change has supercharged the devastation from tropical storms, heat waves, and floods within the region, contributing to unprecedented economic challenges and human suffering,” ADB President Masatsugu Asakawa said in an announcement.
“Urgent, well-coordinated climate motion that addresses these impacts is required before it is simply too late.”
Despite significant strides in reducing emissions intensity, and a 50% decrease across developing Asia since 2000, the region still produces nearly half of world greenhouse gas emissions.
Rapid production, rising energy demand and increased domestic consumption fueled the emissions rise over the past 20 years, the ADB said, with China accounting for two-thirds of the rise. South Asia and Southeast Asia contributed 19.3% and 15.4%, respectively.
The energy sector is the region’s largest emitter, chargeable for 77.6% of total emissions, driven by a heavy reliance on fossil fuels.
Left unchecked, these trends place developing Asia at the middle of the climate crisis, each when it comes to impacts from global warming and solutions, the ADB said.
“The window to remain throughout the 1.5°C goal of the Paris Agreement is rapidly closing,” ADB said.
It urged countries to provide you with more ambitious and large-scale mitigation motion plans, speed up the transition to net-zero emissions and scale up investments in advanced climate technologies and nature-based solutions.
Meanwhile, a majority of Filipinos discover climate change as a significant issue, according the ADB’s Climate Change Perception Survey mentioned within the report.
In a survey of 1,000 Filipino respondents, 90% imagine climate change affects people now and in the following 10 years, while 86% of respondents said it affects their family now or inside the following 10 years.
In response to the survey, most Filipinos (71%) said they were most concerned concerning the impact of flooding, followed by heat waves (54%), unpredictable weather (46%), less productive agriculture/higher food prices/reduced food security (34%), and drought (21%).
Greater than half (59%) of Filipinos surveyed supported investments in low-emissions and resilient infrastructure, while 45% backed a carbon tax.
The survey was conducted online from July 8 to 31,. It surveyed 13,500 respondents across 14 Asian economies. — B.M.D.Cruz with Reuters
