Calumpit, Bulacan on Aug. 1, 2023. — REUTERS
By Justine Irish D. Tabile, Reporter
THE DEPARTMENT of Agriculture (DA) on Monday said palay (unmilled rice) production likely declined this 12 months as a consequence of the damage brought on by El Niño-induced droughts and several other strong typhoons.
“We will expect that the output might be lower in comparison with last 12 months due to huge damage as a consequence of El Niño and the series of typhoons even before Kristine,” DA Assistant Secretary and Spokesperson Arnel V. de Mesa told reporters at a briefing.
The department previously estimated palay production to drop to 19.41 million metric tons (MT) in 2024, 3.24% lower than the 20.06 million MT in 2023.
Mr. De Mesa said the country’s major rice-producing regions and areas were affected by Severe Tropical Storm Kristine.
“With Kristine, despite the fact that we put out an advisory to do an early harvest, there are still areas that can’t be harvested and were left behind. So, we’re really seeing huge agricultural damage nationwide,” he said.
“We are going to understand how big the damage is later. But there might be a decrease in output, especially in rice produce.”
A report by the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) on Monday showed Severe Tropical Storm Kristine and Typhoon Leon caused P5.9 billion price of harm to agriculture.
Mr. De Mesa said the damage from tropical cyclones this 12 months is already higher than the annual average of 500,000 MT to 600,000 MT.
“The damage is a bit larger this 12 months, greater than the regular losses that we expect,” he added.
Citing the assessments of DA Regional Field Offices as of Nov. 2, Mr. De Mesa said that damage to agriculture and crop losses as a consequence of Kristine have to date amounted to P5.75 billion.
“The most important damage is recorded within the rice subsector at P4.25 billion, followed by high-value (crops) at P847 million, while fisheries recorded a P403 million loss in production,” he said.
“The most important damage was recorded within the Bicol Region at almost P3 billion, followed by Mimaropa at P746 million, and third is in Cagayan Valley at P621 million,” he added.
The DA said Kristine has affected 131,661 farmers and fisherfolk covering 109,871 hectares of crops, which resulted in 557,851 MT in production loss.
Earlier this 12 months, El Niño caused droughts and dry spells that affected crops in parts of the country. In its final bulletin on the effects of El Niño, the DA said that agricultural damage and losses in 15 regions were estimated at P15.3 billion.
Agricultural output declined by 3.3% to P413.91 billion within the second quarter, worsening from the 1.2% contraction a 12 months earlier, reflecting the impact of El Niño.
For the first half, the worth of production in agriculture and fisheries slipped by 1.5%, a reversal of the 0.4% growth a 12 months ago.
Third-quarter agricultural output data might be released on Wednesday.
Searched for comment, Federation of Free Farmers National Manager Raul Q. Montemayor said that he expects a single-digit decline in production this 12 months after the dismal output in the primary half.
“I believe it’s going to still be single digit because harvests appear to be alright in areas not severely affected by the typhoons,” said Mr. Montemayor in a Viber message.
“But our supply deficit will proceed to extend as a consequence of the drop in production coupled with the rise in demand or population,” he added.
Mr. Montemayor said output within the second half will likely decline due to effect of the typhoons.
“So, overall, we’re taking a look at a drop in annual production,” he added.
Despite the projected decline, Mr. De Mesa said rice supply might be sufficient with the increased imports.
“Even when there may be a decline, what is nice here is that this might be supplemented by our import arrivals. As of mid-October, it’s already at 3.6 million MT, which just about surpassed the whole importation last 12 months,” he added.
He said that they expect rice imports to be cheaper as a consequence of the lowered tariffs on rice and India’s lifting of its ban on the exports of white rice.
“Hopefully, the peso exchange rate will improve in order that the value of imported rice can even further decline. Because this may help make sure that we may have enough supply and that prices is not going to be affected,” he added.
The US Department of Agriculture projects Philippine rice imports to hit 4.7 million MT this 12 months.
