The Philippines can still achieve its 6-7% gross domestic product (GDP) growth goal this 12 months, National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) Secretary Arsenio M. Balisacan said on Friday.
“We remain optimistic concerning the fourth quarter economic performance. Holiday spending, more stable commodity prices, robust remittance inflow, and labor market give us confidence that our 6 to 7% growth goal continues to be achievable,” he said during a press conference on Friday.
Mr. Balisacan said fourth quarter GDP growth will likely be faster than the third quarter, amid easing inflation and lower rates of interest.
“I feel all these, we imagine that the fourth quarter might be higher than the third quarter,” he said.
Mr. Balisacan said these “positive forces” could outweigh the expected contraction in agricultural output as a consequence of weather disturbances.
Within the third quarter, GDP expanded by 5.2%, as bad weather hurt agricultural output and slowed government spending. This was slower than the revised 6.4% within the second quarter and and 6% a 12 months ago.
It was also the weakest growth in five quarters or because the 4.3% expansion within the second quarter of 2023.
For the primary nine months, GDP growth averaged 5.8%. The economy has to grow by 6.5% within the fourth quarter with a view to reach the lower end of the federal government’s 6-7% goal for 2024.
Mr. Balisacan said that even when Philippine GDP expands by a median of 5.9% to six.1% for the total 12 months, this may still be a “very respectable growth” in comparison with most emerging economies.
For 2025, Mr. Balisacan said the economy will likely profit from rate cuts by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP).
Since starting its easing cycle in August, the BSP has cut borrowing costs by 50 basis points, bringing the benchmark rate to six%.
TRUMP IMPACT
Meanwhile, Mr. Balisacan said the Philippines is “able to work with any economy” as Donald J. Trump is ready to assume the presidency in america in January.
He said the Philippines will adjust its policies accordingly because it constantly built “solid” relationships with the US and other countries.
Mr. Trump has proposed to impose 60% tariffs on US imports of Chinese goods, in addition to a universal tariff of as much as 20%.
“The perfect hope we could make is that what was stated in the course of the campaign can be different from what’s going to actually occur. In order that we won’t get into these high tariffs, increasing tariffs,” he said.
It could be “bad” for the worldwide economy as a complete because it could reduce trade, inflows, and more, Mr. Balisacan said.
“We expect that we hope that we won’t go there, but still our priority, even before this development and as reflected in our PDP [Philippine Development Plan], is to diversify the economy in order that we’ve got all these growth pillars kicking in,” he said. — Aubrey Rose A. Inosante
