President Emmanuel Macron has chosen longtime ally François Bayrou as prime minister in a bid to stabilise the political turmoil in France that has bogged down his second term.
The 73-year-old centrist’s appointment got here after a tense, nearly two-hour meeting on the Élysée Palace, which sparked speculation that Macron had reconsidered other names on the last minute.
It followed a 12 months of political instability through which Macron has now named three prime ministers — a crisis that deepened when the president called and lost early elections in July that left no party or alliance with a majority within the National Assembly.
Bayrou faces the duty of constructing a government with sufficient cross-party support to survive a confidence vote, pass a budget and reassure financial markets and businesses rattled by the recent instability.
The dimensions of that task was underlined late on Friday night when Moody’s cut France’s credit standing from Aa2 to Aa3.
The rating agency said the move “reflects our view that the country’s public funds might be substantially weakened over the approaching years”.
“In a highly politically fragmented environment, there’s now very low probability that the following government will sustainably reduce the dimensions of fiscal deficits beyond next 12 months,” Moody’s said.
The political crisis has undermined Macron on the international stage, just as neighbouring Germany is gearing up for early elections in February. With US president-elect Donald Trump resulting from take office next month, each leading EU powers are weakened by uncertainty.
“Everyone knows the problem of the duty and everybody also knows that there’s a path forward to be found that unites people as a substitute of dividing them . . . There’s an extended road ahead,” Bayrou said on Friday afternoon shortly after his appointment.
Bayrou’s predecessor, Michel Barnier, the EU’s former Brexit negotiator, was toppled last week in a no-confidence vote within the National Assembly after slightly below three months in office. Barnier’s government was voted down over a deficit-cutting budget for next 12 months, a hurdle that Bayrou will now should surmount despite having no parliamentary majority.
A 3-time presidential candidate himself, the brand new prime minister combines a market-oriented view of the economy with support for social justice measures reminiscent of taxing the rich.
He has also called for proportional voting to spice up the culture of compromise in parliament and more power to be devolved from Paris to the remainder of the country.
But his appointment was immediately met with criticism from Macron’s opponents, including from the far-right Rassemblement National (RN) of arch Macron opponent Marine Le Pen, which was instrumental in bringing down Barnier.
“Macron is a president in a bunker, and his latest prime minister must bear in mind the brand new political situation,” said Jordan Bardella, RN party chief. “He must accept that he doesn’t have democratic legitimacy or a majority within the assembly, so must dialogue with all parties,” he added.
The moderate left, whose support is crucial to neutralising the RN, also made clear its dissatisfaction with Bayrou’s appointment.
Chloé Ridel, a Socialist party spokesperson, slammed Macron for choosing an ally somewhat than a candidate from the left, which got here first in July’s parliamentary elections.
“If Bayrou wants our support, he could have to take steps to tackle parts of our agenda, reminiscent of on pensions or salaries,” she said.
An individual near Macron defended the selection, saying that Bayrou had “emerged in recent days as essentially the most consensual figure . . . and [the one] best suited to form the federal government of national unity called for by the president”.
The person added: “His mission might be to have interaction in dialogue with all political parties . . . to determine the conditions for stability and effective motion.”
The uncertainty now afflicting French politics contrasts not only with Macron’s first term, when he had a commanding majority, but with much of the history of the 66-year-old Fifth Republic, during which most governments have proved relatively stable.
Investments and growth have slowed and unemployment has ticked up through the political crisis.
France is under pressure to narrow its deficit, which can stand at 6 per cent of national output by the tip of the 12 months — far above the EU limit of three per cent of GDP.
Macron has sought to arrange the bottom for the brand new government with a non-aggression pact with opposition party chiefs — excluding the far right and much left.
To chop out the RN, he and Bayrou will need to achieve an agreement with the Socialists, who hold 66 seats, and maybe the Greens with 38 and the Communists with 17, while not losing the rightwing.
Fabien Roussel, the communist party head, said the nomination of a loyalist as prime minister sent “a foul signal that will not be what the general public wants”, adding: “They need a change of political direction, and there’s little probability of that now.”
Nonetheless, in a more conciliatory tone, he added: “We is not going to censure this latest government mechanically, and can judge based on his actions.”
Much will rely upon how substantially Bayrou deviates from Macron’s pro-business policies and tax cuts to chart his own course.
His support was key to Macron first getting elected in 2017 and his MoDem party supports the president. But legal difficulties forced him to step aside as Macron’s first justice minister after just one month in office.
Bayrou and his party were accused of embezzling EU funds through the use of Brussels staffers for national political activities. He was acquitted this 12 months, but prosecutors have appealed, raising the opportunity of a retrial.
If one other prime minister were to fall, pressure would intensify on Macron, whose presidential term still has two-and-a-half years left to run, to resign to interrupt the political impasse.
The president has insisted he is not going to step down, since he desires to push through more reforms and protect previous changes reminiscent of raising the retirement age and efforts to make France more attractive to investors.
In a survey by pollster Elabe this week, only 6 per cent of respondents said they wanted a first-rate minister from Macron’s centrist camp, compared with 41 per cent who preferred a non-political selection.
But a big majority of respondents — 76 per cent — said they wanted parties to seek out compromises to finish instability, in an indication that it might be dangerous for the opposition to topple one other government.
Macron’s popularity has fallen to a record low since his election in 2017, with just 21 per cent of individuals having confidence that he can tackle France’s problems, based on a separate Elabe poll on Thursday.
Amongst potential prime minister candidates, Bayrou got the backing of only 29 per cent of respondents in the identical poll.
Data visualisation by Janina Conboye
