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Three-time undisputed super bantamweight champion Naoya Inoue returns to the ring on Friday against short-notice substitute Ye Joon Kim. It is time to proceed our boxing odds series with an Inoue-Kim prediction and pick.
Inoue, 31, was preparing to make this defense against undefeated Australian challenger Sam Goodman, who withdrew from the fight two weeks out with an injury. The undefeated Japanese champion has been a consensus top-five pound-for-pound fighter on this planet for several years and is coming off a seventh-round knockout of T.J. Doheny in September 2024.
Kim, 32, is well getting the largest fight of his life. The Korean accepted the fight on 13-day notice after eight months of inactivity. Kim is coming off a fifth-round knockout of Rakesh Lohchab to win the WBC Oriental Super Bantamweight title. He has won six of his last seven fights by knockout.
Listed below are the Naoya Inoue-Ye Joon Kim odds, courtesy of FanDuel
Boxing Odds: Naoya Inoue-Ye Joon Kim Odds
Naoya Inoue: -5000
Ye Joon Kim: +1600
Over 3.5 Rounds: -108
Under 3.5 Rounds: -118
Easy methods to Watch Naoya Inoue vs. Ye Joon Kim
Time: 4:15 a.m. ET / 1:15 a.m. PT
Major event ring walks: 6 a.m. ET / 3 am.m PT
TV/Stream: ESPN+
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Why Naoya Inoue Will Win
Kim is making such a high jump in competition from where he previously was in his profession that it cannot truly be understated. While he’s coming off a WBC Oriental title victory, he’s lower than two years faraway from losing a lackluster decision to 35-year-old Rob Diezel, who entered the fight with a 14-9 record.
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At this point in his profession, Inoue’s fight-changing power is a tale as old as time. His left hook has been his money-maker, resulting in nine consecutive knockouts ahead of his fourth undisputed title defense. It almost seems as whether it is only a matter of time each time he steps into the ring.
The massive knock on Inoue currently has been his slowly decreasing defensive effort. It is tough responsible him with the matchups he has been given, but he has been clipped greater than once up to now two years, including by Luis Nery, who put him down just two fights ago. Those problems still exist, but Kim doesn’t look like the fighter to show them.
Despite picking up his last six wins by knockout, Kim has won just 13 of his 21 profession victories by stoppage. Given the opponents he has faced and the clear set-ups he has received at times, that’s an uninspiring finish rate. Kim has had plenty of success recently attacking the body, but that will not be the approach to take with Inoue.
Why Ye Joon Kim Will Win
Kim’s entire promotion for this fight is predicated on his belief that Inoue will not be the invincible “Monster” that he’s depicted as. Most of that’s promotional talk, but it’s also a real statement.
Inoue’s power has almost been a double-edged sword of late, because the champion’s belief in his knockout ability has led to relaxed defensive mechanics. Inoue loves his left hook, which may render anybody on Earth unconscious if it lands. Nonetheless, if it doesn’t, he is nearly at all times vulnerable to eating a counter left hook.
Unlike Doheny, Kim goes to exchange with Inoue within the pocket. That could be fatal against Inoue, but it’s also one of the best method to beat him. Inoue can almost be too confident to a fault at times and drop his hands in close quarters, resulting in poor exits. Kim needs to be willing to walk through the fireplace, but he does, the chinks in Inoue’s armor have grow to be increasingly evident.
Final Naoya Inoue-Ye Joon Kim Prediction & Pick
After Inoue was knocked down by Nery, Top Rank tried to present him a positive matchup with Doheny to choose up one other highlight-reel knockout. Unfortunately for them, Doheny made it his goal to remain as far-off from Inoue as possible. This time, they found a fighter willing to interact with Inoue enough to guide to an enormous finish.
There will not be plenty of big fights to establish at 122 kilos, but Goodman was one of the best they were capable of get for Inoue. Although that fight fell apart, it continues to be on the table. In front of his home crowd, Top Rank wants Inoue to placed on a show and remind the world that he’s in the identical pound-for-pound conversation as Oleksandr Usyk and Terence Crawford.
A 3 and a half round spread is noticeably low for a title fight, especially since Inoue has gone over that mark in his last 4 fights. But there may be one clear purpose of this fight and it’ll not take longer than 10 minutes. Kim has never been knocked out, but he has never fought anyone with even half the speed or power that Inoue has.
Final Naoya Inoue-Ye Joon Kim Prediction & Pick: Under 3.5 rounds (-118)
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