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The UFC 313 principal card will begin with a dynamic lightweight bout between King Green (32-16-1, 1 NC) and Mauricio Ruffy (11-1). It’s time to proceed our UFC 313 odds series with a King Green-Mauricio Ruffy prediction and pick.
Green, 38, continues to be one of the energetic fighters within the UFC, even late in his profession. While Green managed to fight his way back into the rankings in 2023, he has since lost his spot in the highest 15. He’s coming off a first-round technical submission loss to Paddy Pimblett at UFC 304.
Ruffy, 28, is certainly one of the leading members of the esteemed Fighting Nerds gym. Though just 2-0 within the UFC, Ruffy has already gathered a major following as a consequence of his fan-friendly fight style and brutal knockout power. The Brazilian is coming off a dominant decision win over James Llontop at UFC 309, his sixth consecutive win.
Listed here are the UFC 313 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 313 Odds: King Green-Mauricio Ruffy Odds
King Green: +340
Mauricio Ruffy: -440
Over 1.5 rounds: -166
Under 1.5 rounds: +130
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Why King Green Will Win
Green has nearly five times the quantity of skilled fights as Ruffy does. He’ll make his twenty seventh walk to the Octagon at UFC 313, over double the quantity of overall fights that Ruffy has to his name. When Green wins, it is usually leaning on that high-level experience and his cardio with a late finish or decision. His pace and volume, especially down the stretch, typically reign supreme.
If Green can survive the primary round, the percentages of the fight swinging in his direction dramatically increase. Ruffy has won 91 percent of his victories by knockout, along with his last win over Llontop his lone decision nod. While he won that fight, he faded significantly in the ultimate two rounds and was unable to complete a visibly compromised opponent. Llontop is nowhere near Green’s level of striking. If Green is put in that situation, he’ll pour it on Ruffy late.
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Each Green and Ruffy are unconventional strikers who keep their hands low and depend on speed, movement, and vision. Each have realized tremendous success with such an approach, but Ruffy has yet to face an identical opponent. Conversely, Green has seen nearly every part at this stage of his profession. Green is notoriously difficult to hit — as shown by his 62 percent striking defense — especially for a low-volume, power-heavy striker like Ruffy.
Why Mauricio Ruffy Will Win
With experience comes deterioration, and Green is starting to indicate noteworthy wear and tear of late. At 38, Green is 1-2 in his last three fights, with each losses coming in the primary round. Green’s last 4 losses have all been inside the space, including three by knockout. All but certainly one of Ruffy’s 11 profession victories have come by knockout.
There are plenty of similarities in Green and Ruffy’s fight styles, but in lots of respects, the Brazilian is a younger, more explosive version. Green losing his last fight to Pimblett by submission isn’t surprising, but he was struggling on the feet before being choked unconscious. He appeared visibly slower than he had before, along with his reactions being far more delayed than they typically are. Pimblett was capable of find plenty of success along with his leg kicks, that are certainly one of Ruffy’s biggest weapons.
Against a cardio-based fighter like Green, Ruffy may have to administer his energy, particularly early. Nonetheless, the style matches up for him, as Green is usually a slow starter. If he can find the chin of Green, there may be a very good probability he could have one other early night. Power punchers like Ruffy will not be typically as fast and accurate as he’s.
Final King Green-Mauricio Ruffy Prediction & Pick
The best way Ruffy looked late in his last fight caused reason for potential concern, particularly as he advances up the ladder. Those concerns could show themselves against Green, who gains momentum like a snowball rolling downhill because the fight progresses. If the fight reaches round three, it could get very dicey for Ruffy. The problem for Green is getting there, which seems unlikely at this point in his profession.
Since 2022, when Green loses, it has been in dominant fashion. He has been knocked unconscious in each of his last three losses, twice by vicious knockout. His excellent defensive head and shoulder movement have all the time protected his questionable chin strength, though each were notably diminished against Pimblett. Perhaps that will be attributed to the odd start time, but losing the way in which he has recently is discouraging ahead of a matchup with Ruffy.
Even when Green can sustain early success, all Ruffy needs is one shot. Ruffy will theoretically struggle to search out the mark greater than he did in either of his previous UFC fights, however the patience and accuracy he possesses are far beyond a fighter with just 12 skilled bouts. Green is elite in space but can get into trouble against the fence, which is how he lost to Drew Dober and Islam Makhachev. All three of Ruffy’s knockdowns within the UFC have been when he systematically pushed his opponents against the cage.
Final King Green-Mauricio Ruffy Prediction & Pick: Mauricio Ruffy by KO/TKO (-125)
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