That is the ‘moment of truth’ for Russia – but in addition for US president Donald Trump – amid a proposal for a 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine.
Vladimir Putin is weighing his response to the deal, which might pause all attacks at sea and within the air, something which has been welcomed by most European leaders.
The choice, experts say, could mark a critical turning point within the war and can test each the Kremlin’s resolve and Trump’s stance on the conflict.
Malcolm Chalmers, deputy director-general of the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), told Metro that Russia would want to grasp first what would occur if it does reject the ceasefire outright.
He described this because the ‘moment of truth’ for Russia and Trump, adding: Would the US then double down on its support for Ukraine and increased sanctions? We just don’t know.’
If accepted unconditionally, an prolonged ceasefire would amount to a strategic defeat for Putin, Chalmers warned.
It will solidify Ukraine’s independence, speed up Western aid, and likewise reinforce the ties with Europe.
These are all outcomes that may contradict Putin’s imperialistic goals in the beginning of the full-scale invasion.
Chalmers explained: ‘As soon because the guns stop, Ukraine’s airports will reopen, foreign assistance will flow in at greater speed, and there will likely be a powerful sense of success across Ukraine.
‘This just isn’t what Russia has fought three years of bloody war to realize. It should not be easy for Putin to clarify to his followers why he has wasted a lot blood and treasure.’
This comes because the Kremlin finally responded for the primary time to news that Ukraine has backed a US-proposed ceasefire.
It warned that Russia doesn’t need to get ahead of itself and that it first must receive information from the US.
Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said he didn’t rule out the potential for a phone call between presidents Putin and Trump, which he said could possibly be organised in a short time if needed.
This cautious response aligns with Chalmers’ assessment that Russia will seek clarification and conditions before deciding.
He said: ‘To avoid making an outright rejection, Putin may press as an alternative for clarification and conditions – especially ones that Ukraine will find it hard to just accept.
‘Russia could insist on there being no Nato or European forces on Ukrainian soil while the ceasefire lasts, and on Ukrainian demilitarisation.
‘And the US may accept a few of these conditions. We should always know loads more in the approaching days.’
Get in contact with our news team by emailing us at webnews@metro.co.uk.
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