We may need lower than two years to organize for war with Russia, a retired British Army general warned.
Donald Trump is withdrawing US military support for Ukraine, and he’s threatening to invade his NATO allies, effectively redrawing the alliances that many feel have helped preserve peace in Europe for many years.
The less reliable the USA becomes as an ally under Trump’s presidency, the more vulnerable Europe is to an all-out Russian invasion, General Sir Richard Shirreff argues.
Russia’s President Vladimir Putin is ready to take advantage of that, Shirreff believes, meaning the ceasefire Trump is strongarming Ukraine into won’t ever result in peace.
Inside two years, the previous Deputy Supreme Allied Commander Europe for NATO thinks Russian tanks will ‘roll across the border into Estonia and Latvia’.
Writing for MailOnline, he said: ‘Inside 4 hours they’re approaching the Estonian capital of Tallinn.
‘The British-led Enhanced Forward Battle Group in Estonia puts up temporary resistance but takes heavy losses before being overwhelmed and compelled to withdraw.’
Ultimately this might result in the UK announcing it’s formally at war with Russia, with Britain’s allies in Germany, France and Italy following suit.
But years of political polarisation – often fuelled by Russian money, bot accounts and astro-turfing – can have succeeded in dividing Nato.
‘In addition to Romania, Hungary, Slovakia, the US refuses to supply support’, Shirreff said.
He predicts this war won’t be contained to simply countries on the peripheries of Europe.
Russia could fire its missiles at RAF bases in England and other targets in Western European countries, which launch retaliatory strikes on Russian energy and military infrastructure, while sending reinforcements to the Baltic states.
Shirreff has a somewhat elaborate fantasy for the subsequent two years – from Russian troops executed within the Donbas, to a different Putin landgrab in Ukraine, welcomed this time by Trump under the guise of peace.
The retired general sees a future where former boxer and mayor of Kyiv Vitali Klitschko replaces Volodymyr Zelensky as President of Ukraine.
Klitschko, Shirreff thinks, will then use the return of all-out war to fireside nuclear missiles – developed in the subsequent two years – at Russia, destroying a city, sparking an ultranationalist coup in Moscow and the secession of assorted ‘vassal republics within the far east and the Caucasus’.
This, he thinks, will result in Putin’s regime collapsing and, with it, Russia’s warmongering – never mind the very fact these ultranationalists are much more hawkish and plenty of of those vassal states are dominated by ethnic Russians.
‘Fiction this is perhaps’, Shirreff wrote. ‘But when we duck the chance to turn out to be masters of our fate, it should be Putin, not us, who’s on top of things.
‘Again, whether the West can survive is determined by how well prepared we’re.’
There may be loads of evidence of Russia’s desire for expansion.
No less than 150,000 people – mostly civilians – were killed when Russia suppressed a war of independence in Chechnya, a region of Russia, within the Nineties.
A whole bunch died and nearly 200,000 were displaced in its invasion of neighbouring Georgia in 2008. Regions of the country remain occupied.
Russia is believed to have killed more civilians in Syria than ISIS did. Roughly 25,000 died in airstrikes carried out to prop up the allied Assad dictatorship.
Fantasising concerning the outbreak of war by 2027, Shirreff said: ‘The a whole lot of billions of euros poured into strengthening our armed forces previously two years means we are able to defend ourselves – and hit back hard.’
On that, European leaders appear to already be acting by mountain climbing spending while weighing up plans to send peacekeepers to Ukraine, with or without US support.
Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced an additional £13.4 billion in defence spending annually from 2027, in a press release to the House of Commons last month.
He told MPs: ‘Considered one of the nice lessons of our history is that instability in Europe will all the time wash up on our shores, and that tyrants like Putin will only reply to strength.’
European Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen announced as much as £674 billion for rearming Europe and Ukraine earlier this month.
Poland leads the way in which with a plan to spend 4.7% of its GDP on defence – higher than the three.4% spent by the US last yr.
France’s defence budget is predicted to achieve £57 billion per yr by 2030, up from £42.5 billion this yr.
Belgium goals to extend its defence budget from 1.3% of GDP to 2% by 2029.
Denmark has announced a £5.6 billion defence fund, and Germany – normally reluctant to confront Russia or boost military spending – is contemplating easing its debt brake to finance defence.
Much of that is coming at the fee of welfare advantages – Finland bought recent fighter jets but cut out-of-work payments and housing allowances last yr.
But, Shirreff warned, ‘we may need left it too late’.
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