The opportunity of “city-killing” asteroid 2024 YR4 hitting Earth is not any longer a threat, nevertheless it could strike the moon, in keeping with scientists.
The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) made the invention after completing the primary of two planned observations of asteroid 2024 YR4.
“While an Earth impact by 2024 YR4 on December 22, 2032 has now been ruled out, it continues to have a non-zero probability of impacting the Moon at the moment,” the researchers wrote of their preliminary report.
There’s a second round of JWST observations set for May 2025, before the asteroid could disappear into the outer solar system for the subsequent several years.
If the asteroid hit the moon in 2032, it could potentially throw debris into surrounding space, in keeping with professor Karri Muinonen of the University of Helsinki.
“Should the asteroid impact the moon, the Earth-moon system might be clouded with particles detached from the moon and the asteroid, potentially threatening the human space infrastructure and operations,” he said.
The near-Earth asteroid first made headlines in late January, when NASA and the European Space Agency (ESA) announced its existence and said it had a 1 per cent probability of coming into contact with our planet.
That increase briefly saw 2024 YR4 labelled because the riskiest asteroid within the history of NASA’s Centre for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry Risk Table.
“An asteroid this size impacts Earth on average every few thousand years and will cause severe damage to an area region,” the ESA said in an area safety briefing. “Consequently, the thing rose to the highest of ESA’s asteroid risk list.”
In one other update in mid-February, the space agency had increased the probabilities of asteroid 2024 YR4 colliding with Earth, with the probability of impact rising to three.1 per cent or one-in-32 odds of impact — the best probability of a collision yet.
It was the best risk assessment an asteroid has ever received, after the 2.7 per cent probability of Apophis hitting in 2004. NASA said there was a 2.6 per cent probability of the asteroid hitting Earth in 2032 with a one-in-38 probability of impact — the identical odds that appear on a roulette wheel.
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On Feb. 7, experts at NASA had bumped up the chances to a one-in-43 probability.
Scientists had previously said it was not keeping them up at night, and that nobody should panic, despite not with the ability to rule out the opportunity of an impact.
By Feb. 18, the space agency announced that the now-notorious piece of space rock had a roughly 3 per cent probability of colliding with Earth.
But on Feb. 20, CNEOS said that risk had fallen to about 1.5 per cent.
Regarding probably the most recent drop in impact risk, NASA wrote, “Recent observations of asteroid 2024 YR4 helped us update its probability of impact in 2032. The present probability is 1.5%.”
“Our understanding of the asteroid’s path improves with every statement. We’ll keep you posted,” the agency said, suggesting more updates will come.
The asteroid measures between 40 and 90 metres wide, based on estimates from its reflected light.
If it did strike Earth, 2024 YR4 would cause “severe blast damage” spanning so far as 50 kilometres from the impact site, in keeping with the International Asteroid Warning Network.
— With files from Global News’ Michelle Butterfield
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