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UFC 314 is live from the Kaseya Center in Miami for one more action-packed night of fights as we bring you a betting prediction and pick for this upcoming Flyweight (125) scrap.
Sumudaerji “The Tibetan Eagle” will tackle Recent England’s Mitch Raposo as each fighters look to get back heading in the right direction with a win. Check the UFC odds series for our Sumudaerji-Raposo prediction and pick.
Sumudaerji (16-7) has gone 3-4 contained in the UFC since 2018. Following a three-fight winning streak in 2020-21, Sumudaerji has dropped three consecutive bouts coming into this fight, his most up-to-date against Charles Johnson. He’ll have his back against the wall because the betting favorite against a hungry opponent. Sumudaerji stands 5-foot-8 with a 72-inch reach.
Mitch Raposo (9-2) comes into this bout with an 0-1 record so far within the UFC. He was a contestant on The Ultimate Fighter and went 0-1 in Dana White’s Contender Series, but he’s back to prove himself after a debut loss to Andre Lima within the underdog spot once more. Raposo stands 5-foot-5 with a 64.5-inch reach.
Listed below are the UFC 314 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 314 Odds: Sumudaerji-Mitch Raposo Odds
Sumudaerji: -170
Mitch Raposo: +142
Over 2.5 rounds: -180
Under 2.5 rounds: +140
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Why Sumudaerji Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) Charles Johnson – U DEC
- Last 5: 2-3
- Finishes: 13 KO/TKO, 1 SUB
After a promising winning streak through the early stage of his UFC tenure, Sumudaerji has dropped three straight fights after seeing a rise in his level of competition. He’s needed to face veterans like Charles Johnson and Tim Elliott with two of those three losses coming by means of submission.
He’s lost six fights via the submission, so it’s clear on what he’ll need to improve against an lively grappler like Raposo. Still, we have seen glimpses of a particularly talented striker, and if he’s in a position to keep this fight on the feet, he stands to potentially discover a knockout late on this fight.
Sumudaerji’s key to success can be using his length and reach advantage to maintain this fight at distance. He’s very lively together with his kicking game and will stand to see success if he’s in a position to hinder Raposo’s movement with the low kick.
His takedown defense is a solid 66%, so it will surely profit him to give you the option to open his striking versus sitting on the fence and defending the takedowns. He lands 4.72 strikes per minute to Raposo’s 2.29 per minute, all while doing so at a 53% clip. Expect him to regulate this fight if they continue to be on the feet.
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Why Mitch Raposo Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) Andre Lima – S DEC
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 4 KO/TKO, 3 SUB
Mitch Raposo saw great success with 4 straight finishes in other organizations, but he was outmatched by Andre Lima during his first official UFC appearance. Granted, he was a +250 underdog and managed to take the fight to a split decision, so it is not a terrible loss on his record, and the UFC clearly sees potential in him as a talent.
He’s fought a ton under pressure in various situations, and he’s very confident in his skills wherever the fight takes place. If he’s in a position to execute his game plan, he might be in for one more surprising underdog performance.
While Raposo can have to cope with a big height and reach drawback, he typically does a very good job of closing the gap together with his jab and using head movement to work inside.
While he’s landing about two takedowns a fight with a 60% accuracy, he can actually profit from working his jiu jitsu against an opponent that clearly struggles on the bottom. Raposo can have to fight a sensible bout in an effort to not allow Sumudaerji to dictate the pace from the striking exchanges.
Final Sumudaerji-Mitch Raposo Prediction & Pick
Each men are fighting for something as Sumudaerji looks to interrupt a three-fight losing streak and Raposo hopes for his first UFC win. The betting odds are right where they ought to be as Sumudaerji can have a considerable size advantage over Raposo.
He’s also the more lively and experienced kickboxer, so he should give you the option to regulate this fight from the feet together with his output and distance control.
Nevertheless, we have seen how hard Raposo works, and he’s a troublesome out for any opponent. If he’s in a position to put his head down and relentlessly secure takedowns, he could win rounds if he’s in a position to keep Sumudaerji and the mat and defending his ground-and-pound. It’ll take a determined effort, but Raposo is all the time a live dog in any of his fights.
Still, I believe Sumudaerji will do enough to maintain this fight standing as he’s sure to land at a much higher clip given his style. Let’s roll with the betting favorite to get the close win.
Final Sumudaerji-Mitch Raposo Prediction & Pick: Sumudaerji (-170)
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